I agree. Perhaps some of the root cause here is a faulty premise. The idea that "25% of the companies are on a trajectory that could lead to a multi-billion dollar company" feels wildly optimistic to me. (And I say that with full respect of YC and the top-teir companies in the program.)

Strong early growth is a very positive sign. But growth is a funny thing and can be hard to sustain. The true market test may come later... from when you are trying to grow a $50 million dollar business into a $500 million dollar business.