back

by paulpauper·11y ago·view on hn ↗
But PE ratios today, unlike in the late 90's, are not that high. Stocks, especially large cap technology and large-cap consumer like Nike and Disney, may still be a good value
2 comments
I'm not sure if I would call them "not that high", the CAPE is still fairly high by historical comparison. [1] Just not absolute lunacy like around 2000.

[1] http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

It's a safe bet that most blue-chip companies with stable revenues and time-tested business models will be just as big, if not bigger in 10-20 years. They'll take a hit when the economy inevitably enters the bust phase of the business cycle, but people will still be buying shoes and coke.

It's the PE of companies like Facebook and Twitter, who derive their earnings from questionable business models (notoriously hard to measure ROI on advertising, millions of fake/spam accounts, possibility of disruption ala Myspace) that I would be concerned about.