"Real AI" is a long way off; my definition: ability for systems to learn from their environment (physical or Internet), change their internal models, and generally evolve their own abilities without requiring external help.

Off topic: I have never met grandmaster Rogoff, but I watched my friend Carl Wagner play him in a telephone San Diego vs. Boston match in 1975. My company SAIC hosted the San Diego end of the match, and I was very surprised to see my friend Carl playing number 1 board: Carl had been clobbering me at chess during lunch time for months and I was just about ready to give up the game since I had a long loosing streak, and I am a poor loser. So, Carl was an international master, and never mentioned it :-)