I think that you are correct. This is why I expect HTML 5 "apps" to be more important on iPhone, Android phones, etc.
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Pardon my somewhat non-techy understanding of this, but how do you see HTML 5 changing that? I am not familiar enough to understand the implications.
HTML5, if 'fully' supported by browsers (like Safari and Chrome), supports a bunch of new features that make previously impossible stuff easily doable - the major one being offline storage.
e.g: GMail can store your inbox in your browser's offline storage cache, so you can continue to use the site and send/read emails just like you do with Outlook or other mail clients today. When you reconnect to the web, it'll sync up and send the differences.