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Here's the issue with these kinds of studies: They take examples of building apps using build 0 of a toolkit or technology, then by the time the study comes out, that same toolkit or technology is on build 100.

The usability of web apps (specifically speed) is improving faster than we can develop our non-trivial apps for this platform. In short: time your version 1.0 with the assumed capability of the host platform at the time of release, plus two years. If you commit to spend a year on AIR development, because ajax or js execution or whatever is not where it should be right now, you're making a mistake.

That's what's bad about pre-obsolescent technologies like AIR - they distract from the future in favor of right now.

Here's another issue with these kinds of studies:

The researchers are either incompetent or on someone else's payroll. Either way, they're useless.

There's a quality to super-heavy ajax webapps - they reach the uncanny valley of similarity to desktop apps.

Just like an animated human starts to look really creepy as it approaches realism, there's something strange about web-apps that approach the style and complexity of desktop apps but don't quite reach it.

I'm personally using flex for my current app. I don't recommend it for every app, but for what I am doing it makes perfect sense. It makes doing a lot of things that would be difficult in AJAX extremely easy. But like I said, not for everyone.
Actually, I think the research shows power users are still dissatisfied with enterprise software, regardless of how much "web 2.0" it contains.
It goes on to recommend AIR and Silverlight. I hope my competitors are big believers in Forrester's research.
Nicely said. Sorry for accidental downmod, stupid CT syndrome... :)
Do you think it's possible for Java applets to make a comeback, or has that ship sailed for good?
Java applets? Yeesh! I hope not.
Why is that? Load time? Clunky? Crash a lot?
I'm not sure about applets, but full Java applications deployed through Java Web Start have been a win for us.
I've done a desktop app myself in Java. It just seems like it could be a seamless integration from desktop app to hybrid web/desktop app (but I must confess I've never written a real applet).
Dead as a dodo
Remember hackers: You can still have you cake and eat it. Rails + Flex makes a sexy combo. (There is a book by the name too, "Flex on Rails". Great stuff.)
Flex is not a technology. It's a marketng BS. In the end your "platform" is a lousy browser plug-in which is already having a hard time catching up to the variety of web-platforms (no iPhone yet, Linux implementation is buggy as hell, etc) while a new wave of Internet enabled portable hardware is just around the corner.
90% of AJAX apps are just like 90% of Windows apps which are just like 90% of mainframe apps: they suck. A greater percentage of AJAX apps suck because the technology is newer, that's all.

I've seen plenty of great AJAX apps, especially for the enterprise. The problem is NOT with the technology, it's with the programming.

Forrester obviously doesn't understand that. They don't find any good AJAX apps (one wonders where they're looking), so something MUST be wrong with AJAX. Their recommendation: explore other technologies, including Microsoft's.

Run, don't walk, the other way from "research" like this. Look on the bright side - you're not the poor sucker who had to pay for it.

Especially for the enterprise? No wonder. Enterprise software represents the absolute lowest form of life among all softwares: the requirements are relaxed, bandwith is fat and users are paid money to use such software, not the other way around. Makes me smile every time I hear "enterprise class" attached to something.

Just a little funny fact: in nearly all enterprise software UIs I've seen, even tab order wan't assigned on dialog panels.

That is not a test for technology, even junk like Oracle survives there.