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by david927·18y ago·view on hn ↗
That's a good point but it's only one aspect. Another striking feature of the late 20th century is our ability to use advanced technology to extract resources optimally. So instead of getting a slow decline in supply and a corresponding higher prices slowing demand (the ubiquitous bell curve), you get a diagonal line followed by a vertical -- in other words, a cliff.

That sounds alarmist but it's just because you don't notice until you're on the wrong side of the graph. Cod was one of the most plentiful fish around and because it was good and cheap it became the base of the "fish and chips" British staple. Cod is now an endagered species. 90% of all large fish have disappeared from the world's oceans in the past half century. And that's just fish. We have new technology to extract oil efficiently sometimes called "super straws". So instead of sputtering to a stop, we'll get there at full speed. It's easy to say, "Oh we'll just slow down or find alternatives." That's like going 150mph and saying if the curve is too tight, we'll just slow down. Sure we will. James Dean style.

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The situation that you mentioned with the cod fits the "tragedy of the commons" scenario. Where property rights are hard to define, resources are over-extracted because there is no owner with the incentive to conserve.

I challenge you to name one resource with normal property rights that fits the "diagonal line/cliff" scenario. I know of none, although it appears to be the common wisdom of the internet at the moment.