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by KasianFranks·8y ago·view on hn ↗
I'm a fan of Bitcoin but here's the truth (source: me, I ran a public company): The real boon here is for new cryptocurrencies as opposed to Bitcoin as it will experience naked shorting resulting in artificial 'sell pressure' from large institutions and hedge funds due to these futures contracts.

In other words, you can take out a large short position without needing any fulfillment while at the same time it factors as 'shares short' against Bitcoin. 'Shares short' is a major component used by institutions to calculate or re-price to the downside and when these numbers are inflated that can result in inaccurate pricing for the benefit of the manipulator.

There are plenty of examples of this and one of the most high profile cases is related to OSTK (Overstock): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_M._Byrne#Campaign_agai...

It's a high-level form of manipulation. This will also reduce Bitcoins volatility and opportunity for large gains in short periods of time.

Of course the reverse is true if institutions want to battle it out on the short and long side but meanwhile the banking divisions of investment banks (JPMorgan et al) remain scared to death of Bitcoin. Ultimately, Bitcoin will have to have more institutional allies and supporters than the worlds banks (banks hate Bitcoin, it makes them irrelevant in the near future) which is quite possible.

New cryptos with low floats (low circulating supply) won't be affected as much thereby offering larger gains in shorter periods of time which will attract more of the typical cryptocurrency day traders and traditional traders.

More on this here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13844765

1 comments
That's not how futures work. For every long futures contract there is also a short one, the net position is always zero. There are also no shares involved.
"The Truth About Naked Short Selling" https://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/09/nake...

"The basic form of short selling is selling stock that you borrow from an owner and do not own yourself. In essence, you deliver the borrowed shares. Another form is to sell stock that you do not own and are not borrowing from someone. Here you owe the shorted shares to the buyer but "fail to deliver." This form is called naked short selling. These short sales are almost always done only by options market makers because they allegedly need to in order to maintain liquidity in the options markets. However, these options market makers are often the brokers or large hedge funds, who abuse the options market maker exemption. (For more, see How To Work Around A Market Maker's Tricks.)

Shorting Without Failing to Deliver There is another form of short selling, which I describe as synthetic short selling. This involves selling calls and/or buying puts. Selling calls makes you have negative deltas (a negative stock equivalent position) and so does buying puts. Neither of these positions requires borrowing stock or "failing to deliver" stock.

A collar is nothing more than a simultaneous sale of an out-of-the- money call and a purchase of an out-of-the-money put with the same expiration date. Another way to short sell is to sell a single stock future, which is equivalent to naked short selling. No shares are borrowed, however, and no shares are failed to deliver..."

"... There are similar future transfers if you have sold calls or sold single stock futures. When you buy puts and fully pay for them, there are none of these money transfers after the purchase, although the value of your account certainly fluctuates as the value of the puts fluctuates.

All of the above ways to obtain negative deltas cause pressure on the value of the stock similar to how straight sales of long stock puts pressure on the price of the stock..."

Continued via the link above which is well worth the read. All things considered, we are ultimately talking about derivatives and derivatives of derivatives.

Good for you that you ran a public company, and you may well be right on the boon for altcoins bit, but please know you are incorrect in relating options and shorting to futures trading. Please try to seek first to understand and only then to be understood.

source: cfa, sellside and buyside trader.

I don't think you understand how options/futures can be used to create artificial 'sell pressure' and in conjunction with the DTCC and CapitalIQ. You should research this.