This is interesting because Iv'e had countless discussions with Bitcoin Maxamilsits who assume that all of Satoshi's coins are never moving and that he's gone forever.
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Assume... or hope?
I had a CISSP for a few years and used to do security deploys and audits for highly secure systems. One part of our teams process was assessing risk. Based on my training, it looks like they _assume_ the coins will never move. The thing is that nobody knows Satoshi's OpSec and events like this don't help.
People are saying Ning was hacked, but is that for sure? Did Satoshi's computer get hacked, did the Ning get hacked, what happened? We may never know, but for me there has always been a non-zero chance that Satoshi's coins could move. I don't know what the result of that would be.
1) Lots of headlines
2) A new hope to find out his identity. He couldn't really pay someone anonymously without using a tumbler, the tumbler he'd use would gain a ton of PR and could become the quasi-official Bitcoin tumbler.
3) Depends on the amount, but I think there'll be a great fear that he could move all of it - that amount would almost certainly being the Bitcoin economy down since its value is (I think) based on the assumption that the coins will never move, so the BTC price would decrease sharply.
That's my guess.
I think one of the potential vectors is that his gmx account was hacked.