I "personally" think it's simplistic.
I tend to believe that one "next wave" will be users obtaining sufficient tools to fend-off the efforts of merchants to deal with them on a super-personal basis. I want to control what people know and what people don't know about me.
I have a number of different interests - social, political, technical and business. I like it when I can find something that it is well-tuned to one of these. I dislike it, quite a lot actually, when I get information that is tries to "bridge" these interests. Just as much, I don't want to have my airline tickets, my digital camera or my laptop marketed to any of my personas - it was the generically good at the lowest price (I'd suspect this is why a reaction to insurance-rate based on browser use resonated with people regardless of its truth).
I mean, historically, our modern capitalist society has evolved on the basis of creating more roles that people enter and leave (That Max Weber-101 folks). Job, friends and family were separated a while ago and most people would prefer they remain separate (we're far enough along that no remembers jobs passed from father to son but I'd assume it sucked). Indeed, I'd say there's a big demand now for easy tools to keep family and job separate.
It should be remembered that the ubiquity of the web is going mean that the new of "naive users" as a percentage of the total online population is only going to be decreasing from now or from a time soon in the future. Once everyone is on a social networking site, they will only become more selective about what they want from it.