Item — HN Reader

I think such predictions are pretty much useless in most situations. For example, there are so many experts now who predicted the stock market crash. I follow a guy on Twitter who has been predicting global economy meltdown forever. These days he is suddenly looking like a prophet even though the meltdown has not totally started yet! Saying that Apple will have problems in China means nothing unless someone provides estimates for the losses.

This article uses all the data that is publicly available and yet claims that somehow Apple executives missed all that.

1 comments

They're also one or two of the most highly regarded Apple commentators. And they provide examples of how apple execs missed stuff in the past. And apple clearly did miss stuff this last quarter: their guidance was uncharacteristically way off.

Stratechery isn't some random site, but you're comparing it to a guy on twitter.

A precise estimate isn't necessary. His claim was that they would shrink measureably in the first S year after a redesign.

Let's look at it this way. If I make 10 predictions out of which only 1 turns out true and if I keep harping on that 1 successful prediction, does that make me a good analyst? If you think yes, then I will be happy to be your investment adviser!

Edit: The guy I follow on twitter is not some random dude. He is an analyst and makes some great points.