Item — HN Reader

The DUP doesn't support it, so this is not a fully agreed deal.

Between the EU and the UK it is a 'deal', but as far as the Democratic and Unionist Party (DUP) is still concerned, they still stand by their rejection of it [0] even after their announcement of the deal. Therefore, more negotiations are needed to satisfy both the DUP and the EU before holding a vote to MPs first.

[0] https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1184707245478678533

2 comments

Boris already lost the majority, even without the DUP defecting.

But (parts of) the opposition parties could actually vote for the deal, thinking it's better than no-deal or gambling on a second referendum.

Which parts? Can we name names? Are there really that many people willing to get kicked out of the Labour party at this late stage to support an obviously bad deal?

Because Labour is looking like such an election winning machine right now:

'Louise Ellman quits Labour party with fierce attack on Corbyn

...the Jewish MP attacked the Labour leader’s record on antisemitism, saying: “Under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, antisemitism has become mainstream in the Labour party. Jewish members have been bullied, abused and driven out. Antisemites have felt comfortable and vile conspiracy theories have been propagated. A party that permits anti-Jewish racism to flourish cannot be called anti-racist.”

She added: “The overwhelming majority of the Jewish community is fearful of what a Corbyn government might mean for Britain’s Jews. I share those concerns. But this issue is not simply about the Jewish community. This is about the nature of our society. Jeremy Corbyn’s seeming tolerance of antisemitism would embolden racists, poison our public debate and damage the social cohesion of our country.'

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/16/louise-ellm...

I wonder if that's following a definition of antisemitism which considers any criticism of the Israeli government as antisemitic?

According to this article (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/04/labour-adop...):

> The most controversial passage in the draft statement proposed by Corbyn said: “It cannot be considered racist to treat Israel like any other state or assess its conduct against the standards of international law. Nor should it be regarded as antisemitic to describe Israel, its policies or the circumstances around its foundation as racist because of their discriminatory impact, or to support another settlement of the Israel-Palestine conflict.”

This statement was not approved by Labour's ruling body.

This strategy of calling antisemitic to any criticism of the state of Israel could work for a while, but, at some point, it's going to be too obvious.

Too obvious it may be, but it seems to be another bullshit media campaign that's worked. It keeps coming back. It's farcical to think of criticising Israel or their illegal occupation is anti-semitism.

Or perhaps it's no coincidence that Labour courts the Muslim vote, and simultaneously appears to tolerate anti-semitism.

19 backbenchers. Probably not suffient to swing the vote, but more people might come out.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labou...

That, and also some of those "sacked" Conservatives. They are still elected members of the House of Commons with voting rights. They wanted a deal, now one is on the table they can vote for. While e.g. the people Labour sacked over sexual harassment allegations will probably stay home.

And there is also the Lib Dems who are caught between a rock and a hard place, who might figure this deal is better than nothing.

I don't think that matters, right now he has someone to blame (the DUP), that's all he cares about.

Or... the plan is to have a general election with Boris Johnson able to say "I have a deal agreed with the EU, now give me a clear majority and let's get on with it", and bye bye DUP.

My guess is it will be put to parliament, there will be an amendment added for a second referendum, he will complain about it but deep down be rather pleased to have it taken off his hands.

A referendum with the choice between remain and this deal would allow for this deal to be voted out without too much loss of face on the Leave-side — which is all that seems to matter to most of the backbenchers not in favour of an outright hard brexit.

An election before a referendum on the deal would make this election all about brexit (again) in a time where other priorities should get the focus.

His current majority is -41, I believe, due to sacking a lot of MPs. This strategy didn't work for Theresa May (indeed it created the DUP situation!) and it won't work for Johnson.

Many of those 21 MPs have already signalled they would vote with the government.

They are leading in the polls and the main threat to them is the Brexit Party, which would be thwarted with a deal in hand, so I wouldn't be so sure.

It's not clear to me that the Brexit party will be thwarted. They'll just repeat their usual line that the deal is Brexit-in-name-only and betrays the result of the referendum.

The Conservatives would at the very least lose a sizable chunk of their seats to Farage's Brexit Party.

But Boris is a bit out of options here. As you said, he already lost the majority so the only thing keeping him in power right now is that the opposition didn't yet vote on removing him.

What's more: he is not May.

He might actually come out of an election successfully in that he can keep being the PM, forming a coalition with the Brexit Party that keeps him in power. While his own party would still have lost lots of seats and lots of goodwill for going in bed with the Brexit Party. But he won't mind, it's Boris First, Party distant second, Country somewhere behind that as a third.

With first-past-the-post, the Brexit Party doesn't have much chance of gaining more than a few seats, just like UKIP.

The EU parliamentary election does not do first-past-the-post, so they could gain a number of seats proportional to the number of votes received there.

I wouldn't be too sure about it. Sure, they will not be able to repeat the results of the last EU election (where they came out on top) at home in the UK, but they still might get gain enough seats to become a player and even a "king maker". After all, we live in a time where every poll said Remain will win, and every pollster said Trump had essentially no chance of winning.

But you're right, First Past the Post voting can pose a major obstacle for them and probably will pose a major obstacle for them in the next election even if it happens sooner than later. Like in 2015 when they had a popular vote share of 12.6% but got had one seat (or 0.2% of seats)

I despise the UKIP as much as any one else, but I think it is a major indictment of the voting system that a party, any party, with more than 10% of the electoral vote has near to no representation in parliament.

Right. They wouldn't lose seats to the Brexit party; they would lose seats due to the Brexit party (to the LibDems and Labour).