Maybe not; maybe it'll be a great success.
I think paper book sales are doomed for long-term decline.
I'm not sure that's true. I own a Kindle but I find it's less expensive to purchase new paper books just about every time. Sure there's the occasional time when a book is on offer in the Kindle store, but it's pretty rare. I haven't re-charged my Kindle for more than a couple of years.
Also there's a bunch of authors I've followed and read over the last 40 years whose books I always buy in hardback whenever they publish something new.
When it comes to technical books paper wins every time, simply because it's far easier to jump about the pages. Also diagrams, graphs, code samples, that kinda thing are pretty awful in current e-book implementations.
And then for many of us there's nothing quite like the feel of a paper book and, if you have space, building a physical library of stuff read, and stuff to be read and being able to peruse it when looking for the next thing to read. Though this does make for a lot of boxes each time you move house.
A lot of people dismiss this, but I think it’s absolutely true. A hugely formative part of my childhood was just browsing the bookshelves at home and pulling down whatever looked interesting. If our books were on kindle, that experience doesn’t happen.
Also, in the immortal words of John Waters: “If you go home with somebody, and they don't have books, don't fuck 'em!”
This is precisely how I widened the scope of what I read as a youngster. I get very excited when I visit a new friend's or acquaintance's house and see they've got a bunch of heavily populated bookshelves, and there are books lying around everywhere.
Another thing I forgot to add as a reason for the continued existence of paper books is flicking through older read books and discovering a bus or train ticket, or a receipt, used as a makeshift bookmark which can evoke strong memories or feelings from the time and place you'd read that particular book. And getting your favourite authors to sign first editions at book readings.
On what grounds, may I ask? There currently doesn't seem to be a long-term declining trend in paper book sales, so are you expecting a significant change in technology or society that will cause a long-term decline? Or (possibly) did you conclude this (quite reasonably) when there was such a trend and haven't checked recently?
I disagree. Here are some reasons for prefering paper books that are not habit or nostalgia:
Longevity.
Reliability.
Isolation and permanence of content - nobody is going to come into my house and edit my physical books. Some eReader eco-systems are robust in this regard; others remain under the control of a thrid party.
Ease of mark-up, and the range of mark-up available is an order of magnitude superior to those of eBooks.
Phenomenally intuitive bookmarking interface. So easy to bookmark different places and so fast and easy to use those bookmarks.
High-quality images and colours.
Screen size; I have many books that present a large, very high resolution view. For books that benefit from it - art books in particular - this is a real advantage. The best eBook reader can't compare, and small kindles and the like are just terrible in comparison for this. Large eBook reader systems such as a desktop PC with a huge, high resolution monitor is better, but this is something of a high-cost option.
Multi-screen - I can open a lot of physical books at once, and they simply expand into available space (really fast, too - the loading time is so short that I barely notice). Having five or six ebooks open at once and flitting between them quickly is either impossible or much less satisfactory than the physical book version. I habitually have three or more physical books open at once, and five or six is not uncommon. I suppose you could call this one "habit", in that I am in the habit of being able to look at five or six books at once, easily flitting between them at speed.
Realtive self-contained operation; they rely only on a light-source being available to operate for decades or even longer. eBooks require much more support in terms of software, power and hardware.
Random-access interface; the speed with which I can change pages (not just consecutive pages, but large numbers of pages at once) using a physical book is an order of magnitude better than an eBook, and I will often find part of a book I seek using this random access method. Even when I am familiar with an eBook's layout, quickly finding a particular section is just much more clumsy. The reading experience is damaged by this inferior aspect of the interface.
If I need the books, the uncomfortable location with a huge inventory that don't need to pad prices to deal with rent seems like the obvious first stop.
In this case, it's ebooks and learning over the internet. The need for the paper book is diminished, and it is a waste of our human labour for thousands of people to be working book stalls for entire lifetimes when there is a more efficient way to disseminate knowledge.
Their competition is not the internet. It's a better bookstore with lower prices in an air conditioned shopping mall.
Those who earn a living doing that might disagree about it being a waste of labour. A job that provides an income is useful to society even if you don't consider the thing being worked on to be worthwhile. (FWIW I prefer physical books to reading on a screen).
Does it follow that a job that does not provide income is not useful to society even if you consider the thing being worked on to be worthwhile?
No, it does not follow. The most prominent example: parenting.
In this case it is the online second hand stores (abebooks, amazon, etc) the ones that are killinh the physical stores.
Plus, with a digital version like epub, I could change font size and let it reflow, change the colour theme to sepia in Apple’s Books app or Calibre, and it would still be beautifully formatted.
It all depends on the book publisher. They could have printed it in color. And they could have done a crappy job on the digital version. In fact, by far the worst book quality I’ve ever seen was a very expensive Kindle version.
Increasingly it seems to me that things get replaced simply because a company can make more revenue.
* Subscription software - 'more efficient'? Not really - just a guaranteed revenue stream
* planned obsolescence in products - 'more efficient'? No.
* "Books" that you don't really own, that you can't easily lend to friends or resell? Clearly all about the efficiency.
Pop fic and pop non-fic, then, for ebooks. Excellent for those. Paper or both for most everything else.
My paper book library has increased every year; novels I want to own on paper (sometimes more than one copy), books received as gifts, technical books, art books, picture books, language books, reference books, mathematical text books, graphic novels (and indeed, some things that clearly are "comics"), a significant number of books that simply aren't available in electronic form (and I probably wouldn't want in electronic form anyway - if I'm buying a book from the 1800s I want the physical artifact!), more and more.
At the moment, the only benefit I see to the Sony Reader is that it's very lightweight and compact for a stack of 12 novels. That is a very serious benefit and it's a real lifesaver for travelling, but inside the house I'm paper all the way. The only problem I have with them is that I'm genuinely running out of space to put them. Every bookshelf is two (or even three deep) with books, and I've lost one desk entirely to books piled three to four feet deep. There is a real chance that I might end up finally giving up on renting purely to buy a house in which I can turn a couple of rooms into decent book storage.