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No one can point to $tsla as a functioning example of a rational actors.
Put your money where your mouth is and short the stock (or buy put options) :)

PS> I am a Tesla owner who then bought the stock as well since the experience was so revolutionary. I agree with the other poster who compared it to the 2007 iPhone.

Well, that statement may or not be right. I guess only the future will answer that one, but;

How do you really value a company like Tesla?

According to skeptics the company should've been dead 10 times over already. But if you actually do some research, you find that the technology is sound, the execution is there, and not at least the vision of an electric future is there. Further more its CEO has stated that 'We're going to do these other things also.' - Referring to Full Self Driving and production rates. It has a track record of delivering; 'maybe not on time - but we get it done.' There's no real reason to doubt that they are serious, go watch autonomy day and you'd get the idea.

The vision isn't just automotive, it's solar for homes and grid batteries as well. a decentralized power grid for the future.

Meanwhile all the promised competition and Tesla killers have proven to be vaporware. And that's before you start looking at the logistics of making an electric car. With electric cars you need batteries and lot's of them. No other car manufacturer has access to enough volume to even begin to compete with Tesla, these battery factories haven't even been built. And the electric motors of competitor are less efficient by a large margin, meaning they need larger batteries for the same range, and higher charging speed to be able to charge the same distance in time as a Tesla.

Buying tsla is right now like buying a part of the future, and no other company is close.

Is the share price ridiculously high? Yes, but which other company in the world right now is stumping the competition as badly as Tesla. The only real comparison is Apple after the release of the iPhone. But while apple got real competition after 4-5 years. Tesla still rules all the important metrics regarding electric cars wh/km, accel, charging speed.

And apple still keeps most of the profits in the mobile market, even tough they have a small market share.

So maybe it is rational pricing that you are seeing, the markets are trying to value more than just cars produced. After all the CEO is landing rockets on barges as well so who knows :)

>The vision isn't just automotive, it's solar for homes and grid batteries as well. a decentralized power grid for the future.

The "issue" is, these are low margin businesses. Why don't you provide some actual numbers? How many cars, roofs and batteries do they have to build/install to justify the market cap?

Much of the Tesla valuation is based on self driving taxis and appreciate cars, and that ain't happening for a while.

>But if you actually do some research,

You don't think funds with billions on the line are "doing research"? That's...presumptuous.