Item — HN Reader

This is a topic that seems to be in a perverse conflict of interests.

A. Politicians have interests representing themselves as well as their country, and thus have given dishonest advice (masks don't help) with an ulterior motive (save them for hospital), downplayed the problem, and covered up the number of cases.

B. I think a lot of actually qualified experts (doctors, scientists) to think the public can't handle the truth perhaps? I still have yet to see anybody in any position of respect or authority simply say the bald truth: "A few million Americans will die, at least, unless some radical cure happens. Social distancing is a drop in the bucket, ventilators make a tiny difference. The vast majority of young people will be totally fine"

I'm disappointed in our society for failing to bubble up and synthesize good information quickly.

2 comments

> Social distancing is a drop in the bucket

Sorry, but look at how China, South Korea, Taiwan etc. are doing right now - this doesn't jive at all with "social distancing is a drop in the bucket". Even Western countries/places which started social distancing early in their local outbreaks look like they'll be a lot better off than places which didn't.

> The vast majority of young people will be totally fine

This is also quite wrong, unfortunately. A sizeable minority of young people will need hospital treatment for COVID, and perhaps intensive care. Given overwhelmed healthcare systems, they won't be "totally fine" at all. Of course, older folks are at increased risk.

I highly recommend this video from Korea (Professor Kim Woo-joo from Korea University Guro Hospital) that gives a Korean perspective on the disease and the western response to it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU

A few points of interest: (He is a very respectful fellow so apologies if the summary seems a bit to the point)

- Masks help and he is slightly puzzled why the west hasn't adopted that culture

- Their testing and tracing helps and they doubt the US would allow their level of privacy invasion

- Korea is doing well because they have had to respond to pandemics and were prepared (as are Taiwan, Singapore etc)

>Sorry, but look at how China, South Korea, Taiwan etc. are doing right now

I'm taking China numbers with a LARGE grain of salt (basically I don't believe them at all given how they have lied from day one of this pandemic). I'd wager South Korea has a level of preparedness that few other countries in the world has, given that they share border with a hostile country.

Overall it seems that South Korea and Taiwan were very successful in restricting and tracking travelers (I read Taiwan totally closed the border for foreigners a couple of weeks ago) and were therefore quick to quarantine people coming from countries with outbreaks.

> Social distancing is a drop in the bucket

This is a frustrating and sad thing to read here. Social distancing WILL save lives. Even if it is a "drop in the bucket", and I don't believe that to be true, once hospitals are at capacity every SINGLE severe case that social distancing prevents or delays is potentially a life saved.

> ventilators make a tiny difference

Would you say that to the families who have a loved one on a ventilator right now?