Much as this may seem like sitting on the fence, I would suggest that even with the considerable data we have collated so far, we do not know enough to predict outcome or outlook. For instance, a BMJ article was posted earlier [1] which, if you overlook its many valid caveats, suggested that Covid-19 might well be far more widespread than generally imagined. Until we know the answer to just that one question, it seems that speculation about outcome is idle or fanciful.
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Surprising info from that thread's article indeed, if confirmed:
> A total of 130 of 166 new infections (78%) identified in the 24 hours to the afternoon of Wednesday 1 April were asymptomatic (...)
> China is rigorously testing arrivals from overseas for fear of importing a fresh outbreak of covid-19.
> But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’
Thanks for sharing.
There has been much debate/controversy over a paper published recently suggesting that perhaps half of the UK population has already been infected with Covid-19. The popular press here went mad over it; you can get a reasonably good overview from an opinion piece in The Guardian from March 26:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/26/virus-...
Again, until this sort of huge unknown is properly addressed, I would be reticent to speculate on outlook.
You're right. The degree of uncertainty is still too high, we don't even have a figure on the percentage of asymptomatic cases. Lockdown/quarantine measures right now seem in line with the old saying "hope for the best, prepare for the worst".
The evolution of this disease over the course of the next months will tell us who's right and who's wrong on these varying estimates.
If true what would explain the increasing number of deaths?
Yes, until mass immunization happens, I think it'd be consistent with an increasing number of deaths.
Social isolation/quarantine measures would also possibly take more time to take effect for reducing new confirmed cases/deaths.