back
120 comments
In case somebody is wondering about the significance of a temperature record

https://books.google.com/books?id=N0FLSOmeFPsC&pg=PT59

Bottom line: records are extremely rare if events occur at random. If new records become far more common than the harmonic series predicts, then this is telling us that annual climatic events are no longer independent annual events but are beginning to form part of a systematic non-random trend.

1915: 100 degrees (from the article)

2020: 100.4 degrees (unverified, as described in the article)

How significant is this newly reported record temperature?

Is it conceivable that the warm day in 1915 reached 100.4 degrees?

Maybe we've changed

  - the amount of reporting of records
  - the way we measure (thermometer and other equipment changes)
  - the frequency of measurement (periodic to continuous)
  - the immediate area (urbanization, equipment use)
  - the number of measurements (every location gets a chance for a record update)
  - the precision of reporting
etc.
Why is this downvoted? These are entirely reasonable questions.

One reason why climate research is so hard is because of the variability of historic temperature data.

On the "precision of reporting" scale, one should also note that the 1915 was recorded in Fahrenheit (100F) in Alaska, and the 2020 record was recorded in Celsius (38C) in Siberia and then converted to Fahrenheit, adding the record-making decimal (100.4F).

Oh, and then rounded up to 101F apparently just for the headline.

Honestly, who rounds 100.4 to 101?

Reading some of the comments in this thread, it's amazing that the scientific study of climate and the atmosphere has become a matter of political identity.
As well as the significance, danger and precautions that come with our current pandemic.

Two of our current greatest threats threats to human life reduced to political wedge issues.

You are saying Coronavirus with <500k deaths worldwide (0.007%) is a "greatests threat threats to human life".

Sure, we should take some precautions from now on, but this level of hyperbole is ridiculous.

If anything, this pandemic was a good wake up call to be a bit more careful in our modern super-connected world. We should prepare in case a truly dangerous bug comes along. The hyperbole actually goes against this, see Cry Wolf.

It is a shame - but it has always been a political issue, politicized by the global warming advocates.

1988 Canadian environment minister: No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…climate change [provides] the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world.

Many more https://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2013/02/05/in-their-o...

It's a "bootleggers and baptists" combination of those who want to remake the world governance and true believers who want to save the world from the perceived danger.

What do you think is the reason? Some of the arguments that I heard include the suggestion that some of the radical environmental plans may cause serious losses of jobs and tax revenue, and increase poverty, while other heavy polluters would get ahead and dominate the world's politics and economy.
The fact that it is inconvenient doesn't invalidate the reality.
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" - Upton Sinclair

But more charitably, I could also see people going past worrying to denial/dismissal

There's an upper limit to human survivability given heat and humidity levels: Wet Bulb temperature of 35C.

Humans can't sweat fast enough to maintain homeostasis.

https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat-index

Hasn't happened yet for sufficient periods in any substantially populated impoverished area, but when it does, well, the horror will be incalculable.

I don't disagree - but the south of USA this is just called "August"
I can't find a link right now but I read somewhere that farmers in Costa Rica were starting to get liver damage because the wet bulb temperature had been reached there so we're starting to see the effects already
Is the wet bulb temperature the same for all humans or does age/size come into play?
Is this true? That's hotter than most days here in tropical Singapore! Where are the photos and videos of the locals sunbathing? I’m really curious how they are reacting to the unusual (for them) warm weather.
What I saw on the local (Dutch) news is houses being severely damaged due to the melting permafrost.

And who in his right mind would sunbath at 38 Celcius, especially when you're not used to it. We went past 40 last here in the Netherlands, but I guess moving north for cooler weather is out of the question now.

if Siberia is anything like Canada or Scandinavia during a warm summer then the very last thing people want to do is to be outside. Outside when the frost melts means the air is full of newly hatched hungry mosquitos looking to bite and drink blood.
Sydney routinely beats Singapore for daily maximum temperature during summer. This is because the variation in daily maximum temperature is much much higher in sub-tropical regions than near the Equator. So Sydney's average maximum temperature in January (27C) is lower than Singapore's (30C), but the variation is enough that the record high in Sydney is 10C hotter (45C vs 35C).

If you like stable warm weather, your sweetspot is probably Brisbane, where it never really gets too hot or cold (rare exceptions).

As mentioned in another comment, this is not very unusual (summer days are often above 30 degrees C). The town Verkhoyansk is in an extreme subarctic climate, and along with other famous places like Oymyakon and Yakutsk they're known to have the largest amplitudes of temperature in the world, the only places with "a temperature range higher than 100 °C " between coldest and warmest throughout the year.
People don't always sunbath when it's hot outside, quite the contrary, we're actively searching for the shade. At least in the parts of Europe from where I'm from (Eastern Europe, to be more precise).
AFAIC, somewhere around 25C / 80F is ideal sunbathing weather. 38C / 101F is brutal; well beyond the point at which finding air conditioning is my number one priority. When it's that hot out, I'd sooner sit in a tub of ice cubes than lounge around under the sun.
> tropical Singapore

Singapore is always hot and humid, but places of all latitudes can be hotter for a short period, but usually with low humidity.

So San Jose (Silicon Valley) has a couple weeks of over 100 F weather each year. But almost no humidity.

While it is still a temperature record, I want to point out that +30C range temperatures were not unseen there before. There are hot summers in Siberia due to the extreme continental climate.

(Source: was born in Siberia).

There has been unusual hot and cold spells of weather on the high latitudes in the past year or so due to the arctic polar vortex behaving in an unusual way.

My knowledge is limited, if there's a meteorologist reading this comment, please enlighten us on the topic.

Yes, but it's useful to compare last year and this year:

https://twitter.com/defis_eu/status/1275337834937884676

NORTHERN Siberia?

I'll grant you that Barnaul certainly knows of 35c+ temps, but arctic circle? Heat records have been broken. Source: broken heat records.

"This dramatic warming of the Arctic up to triple-digit temperatures was not expected to happen until 2100 from climate change."

It happened one time, I am not sure if this statement is warranted. In 1937, Montana recorded the hottest temperate it ever recorded when it reached 117 degrees in Medicine Lake.

Not saying this was a fluke, but it could have been. It happens all the time.

Flukes seem to be happening a lot these days. I know some of it is sensationalism but still, 38ºC north of the arctic circle is something.
Headline: The Arctic Circle Hit 101°F Saturday

Actual details from the article: This past weekend, a small Russian town in the Arctic Circle hit ... 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit

How can Forbes justify using this headline?

> How can Forbes justify using this headline?

Forbes is now a content host - when you see an article from forbes.com/sites/xxxx, that means that it's essentially a blog from a rando that Forbes selected as a 'contributor'.

See https://www.journalism.co.uk/news/the-forbes-contributor-mod...

> Contributors have access to the same publishing platform as Forbes's own journalists, a platform which was built by Forbes itself. And keeping the system simple is vital, Federle said, to allow them "to focus on the journalism", and not get distracted by technicalities. > Second is the Most Popular section, which Federle explained is "algorithmically generated" and "driven by velocity engine" which looks at social shares and comments to rank stories. > "We've taken our platform and will shrink wrap it down to a product they can plug into their platform. This is a new business for us."

Innumeracy on display.
Ummm it's factually correct?

Re: "A small Russian town" lol, Do you propose that temperatures were different 50km away?

There is a massive heat wave rolling through NORTHERN Siberia right now, and it's not been confined to one town nor is this "record" the only broken heat record.

Southern Siberia, like the Altai region, hit's such temperatures regularly, but that's Novosibirsk and south. What we are referring to here is unprecedented, so let's please stop acting as if ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE wasn't a factual reality threatening mammalian life on earth.

The average high is 68 so this recorded high is an offset of about 32 degrees which is huge. Imagine what that does to the ground that is normal filled with frozen moisture.

For some reason it has been consistently 8 to 15 degrees cooler than normal everyday this summer here in Kuwait. Not as extreme a difference but still strange weather. November 2018 Kuwait saw its largest flood event on record and then 10 days later there was a second flood that was 2 to 3 times greater than that record setter.

Maybe the wildfires burning has a lot to do with it. [0]

[0]: https://www.ecowatch.com/wildfires-siberia-russia-2645912533...

Folks, let's be consistent.

Either we accept record highs as an evidence for climate change, but also accept record lows as an evidence against, or we refuse both based on the statement that "weather is not climate".

Both record highs AND record lows can be evidence of climate change. [0]

https://scijinks.gov/polar-vortex/#:~:text=A%20polar%20vorte....

I read the article. The author (a tropical geologist) mixes up weather (temporary) with climate (long-term), among other things.

The concern of arctic residents is if the weather is hot enough, for long enough, to melt the permafrost. That has numerous repercussions, including emissions, transportation and wildlife.

For example, any highways or pipelines on top of permafrost will dislocate if permafrost melts.

But overall, Canada is in favor of glabal warming. Most of our land mass is not arable with the current climate.

Source: Canadian, eh.

Melting permafrost does not make arable land.

Soils under boreal forests are not good farm land.

Thin soils over the Canadian shield are not good places to plant crops. Or Northern Ontario, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan, wouldn't be mostly forests.

Mass forest fires don't make good ranch or farm land.

Climate is not the obstacle for agriculture moving further north in Canada -- the Canadian shield is.

And Canadians aren't making use of the farm land we have already. We used to be a net food exporter, now we are a net importer. Which hasn't been great during the COVID crisis.

Overall Canadians (but not the major opposition party, or most Albertans) are very concerned about climate change and not "in favour" (spell it right if you're Canadian, please). However they fear the economic reprocussions that result. Like most people.

Source: Canadian, eh. Also Ipsos polling https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/new-survey-canadians-views-clima...

> The author (a tropical geologist) mixes up weather (temporary) with climate (long-term)

Right, sure, the guy with a "PhD from Duke University where I studied the geology and climate of the Amazon", understands less about climate and weather than you do.

Do you truly not understand that this is extremely basic stuff to everyone except the Climate Change "Sceptics"? They really do have this bizarre habit of quoting schoolkid level science as though it's some amazing insight they've just discovered.

They just had a massive diesel oil spill in Siberia due to permafrost loss, which broke equipment. Oil is now following rivers up north to the coast.
If you swap out "overall" with "in isolation".. I sincerely and hopefully doubt that most Canadians would ruin a lot of the world, for a bit more arable land.
i think it'd be smarter to keep Canada's land the way it is until you figure out how to handle a few (dozen) million of immigrants per year whose land used to be arable...
The town is Verhoyansk for those who don't want to click a forbes article.

I feel this is clickbait (at least the title). Continental climates fluctuate a lot. One day breaking a record could simple be a statistical outlier. A poke around the records does show that the entirety of June so far has been well above average, and that this is not normal. But I guess "global warming slowly driving more extreme high temperatures in artic siberia" doesn't get as many clicks.

June 2020 weather records for Verhoyansk: http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=24266&month=06&ye...

It has trends for the past 40 years

> It is well known that the poles warm faster as a result of climate change. For example, the average increase in temperature on Earth over the past 40 years is 1.44°F. In comparison, the Arctic has warmed by more than 3.5°F during the same period, more than double the global average.

I wonder if there are some effects from the reduced pollution over the last few months of lockdown. We have had some unusual weather in the UK, like the sunniest spring on record.
Breaking News: Weather glitch confirms climate change came 80 years faster than expected!