I know why the WinPhone fiasco happened: they, very reasonably, wanted to get everything on an NT base. WinPhone 7 was WinCE, WinPhone 8 was NT.
I don't think they realised how many people used WinPhone 7 and were happy with it. Over here in Czechia, Windows phones were the main smartphones I saw when I moved here in 2014 -- Android and iOS were very rare, because they were very expensive. Windows phones were the affordable way to get a smartphone -- there were a lot of candybar dumbphones still around here in 5-6 years ago.
I don't think dodging antitrust was luck, though. I think the US was afraid to kill or even maim one of its very few big success stories, one of the only ones that _wasn't_ being outcompeted by Asian or European companies.
Since then, MS has lost some big battles -- notably, phones and tablets -- and it's learned to be conciliatory and how to appear friendly to people too young to remember the viciously rapacious 1990s MS.
My point is, I still think it is just play-acting friendly. This is the null hypothesis: same company, same people, same structure, and therefore, same business practices. It just got burned a few times so now it wants to come over as a reformed character.