Item — HN Reader

The final Democracy Institute poll (https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1354506/us-election-202...) that came out Saturday predicts a Trump victory contrary to most other polls, because it found that 79% of Trump voters do not tell others that they support him, while only 21% of Biden voters are shy.

USC's poll predicts a Biden victory, but when experimental questions are asked to figure out how those polled really feel, it forecasts a Trump win (https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/3338/experimental-poll...).

For those who are skeptical, put on a "Make America Great Again" hat and walk through downtown Chicago, San Francisco, Ann Arbor, or Cambridge before or after election day 2016 (or 2020). Now, put on a "I'm With Her" or "Biden/Harris 2020" shirt and walk through Provo, Fort Worth, or Pensacola before or after election day. In which scenario are you more like to be yelled at and/or physically attacked?

3 comments

Well, polls are IMHO not good, betting odds are better I have found, for example the last UK general election the bettering odds had conservatists to win. Yet if you looked at Twitter or Facebook, you would be convinced Labour would win with complete dominance in posts upon those platforms. That day I learned that social media is not representative of the populous at large and only a slanted snapshot and polls are equally not that great. See with polls - people lie, why - many reasons, some tactical, some not bothers and some just to avoid confrontation from easily agitated oppositional types.

AS for America - last visit I made was over a decade ago but I learned to avoid political debate with a passion as people don't do debate and more argue you to death. Even then in the office had a chap come in and almost interrogated me upon political views, even worrying was others warned me of that and I dismissed them. You live you learn and I've found that the older people are - the more they are inclined to avoid such debates as they more often than not become toxic.

Weren't polls actually quite accurate for the UK in 2019?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_U...

Obviously social media is a terrible barometer for political mood. It's designed to build a self-co gratulatory bubble, but I'm not sure I buy the argument that polling is rigged or unscientific.

Polling is a statistical model of a rare event of human behavior - of course there's uncertainty!

>Yet if you looked at Twitter or Facebook, you would be convinced Labour would win with complete dominance in posts upon those platforms.

"Never mistake your Twitter feed for your country" (https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1205273956078563328)

Meanwhile a convoy of armed Trump supporters literally tried to run the Biden campaign bus off the road [1].

That's the reality Trump supporters are using fascist tactics (and I'm not exaggerating here, these acts are rightbout of a fascist playbook) while complaining that liberals say mean things to them.

[1] https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.dailymail.co.uk/new...

BTW there are reports that police refused to do anything, if that is true we are really right in 1930s territory.

I wouldn't help the Biden campaign either if I was police, after they stocked the flames of a movement that literally chanted about wrapping cops up and setting them on fire.

Let's consider that what you are saying is true, are you suggesting that the police should only help people that they politically agree with, because it really sounds like it?

Do you believe that is a healthy police force in a democracy?

I used the word "would" not "should". Humans are imperfect, and I think one of my imperfections is I'd look the other way if some citizens were bullying a group of people that supported chanting about burning me alive.

Even if what you are saying is true, are you suggesting that the police should only help people that they politically agree with, because it really sounds like it.

Biden has been extremely pro-cop every time a person of color is murdered by police

>Meanwhile a convoy of armed Trump supporters literally tried to run the Biden campaign bus off the road.

Surrounding the bus, while keeping to all traffic laws.

And before you say "But what about the Biden car behind the bus?", as this video (https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1322646326807568390) shows, the black Trump-supporter vehicle was already close behind the vehicle in front of it before the white Biden vehicle moved into its lane from the left.

The fact that the rubrik for interaction is "being yelled at" or "attacked", and not just "being approached in civil discussion" of any kind is telling of how one side has lost site of the whole point of "civics"

> one side has lost [sight] of the whole point of "civics"

Today the president voiced approval for his supporters literally running his opponents' supporters off the road.

For those who don't believe offshore4432: As this video (https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1322646326807568390) shows, the black Trump-supporter vehicle was already close behind the vehicle in front of it before the white Biden vehicle moved into its lane from the left.

If you actually look at the video closely, the Trump supporters' vehicles kept their own lanes. The other vehicles drove into their lanes.