I just realized that Trump could become presidential candidate again in 2024 for a second term. So it might not be over yet.
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I don't think the USA has anything like Brazil's "Clean Record Act" (Lei da Ficha Limpa), but it's not unlikely that, once Trump leaves the presidency, he will face several lawsuits, and the outcome of these lawsuits might lead to him not being able to become a candidate for a while.
Has a US president ever won (or even ran for) a non-consecutive term?
Grover Cleveland won the popular vote 3 times in a row but lost the Electoral Vote in the middle.
More recently than Cleveland, Theodore Roosevelt ran for a third term, as a third-party candidate, four years after leaving office.
He came second.
I googled it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland
Yes, Grover Cleveland
Only Grover Cleveland.
Yes, Grover Cleveland.
Grover Cleavland
I wonder what will happen to Trump now though, isn't he at risk of going to prison?
I wouldn't bet on more than a few weeks of prison time, if that.
Powerful people won't let powerful people go to prison because it threatens their own position as untouchable. Don't count on it.
Zero chance the Republican Party would endorse someone who lost a national election. Arizona Republicans are no-doubt regretting putting a one-time loser in a position to lose yet again.[0]
There was zero chance they'd have nominated Trump in 2016 too, at first. Maybe it's hard to remember what a joke he was at the beginning, and even through most of the campaign. I'd say the chances are much higher than zero that the pro-Trump base would win him the nomination again if he ran. It's easy to imagine him pulling media stunts for the next 4 years in preparation for just that.
I think Trump did two things in 2016:
- He gave hope to blue-collar workers, mostly white but not exclusively, who increasingly felt left behind by globalism and the tech-centric economy. This let him steal votes from Democrats as people wanted to try something different. Trump's rhetoric was tailored to them("drain the swamp", immigration crackdowns, economic warfare, etc).
- He fired up the right-wing base of the party and got them to show up at the polls. This caused increased enthusiasm and helped drive turnout of all GOP leaning voters I believe.
Also, let's not forget that Hillary Clinton, rightly or wrongly, was just not a very likeable candidate with broad appeal. She did win the popular vote, but as we all know that is meaningless.
Now we've had 4 years to see what Trump was capable of. His primary opponents will be able to point to his record instead of just his promises. I don't think Trump will come back for another round. He'll be too old in 4 years, and won't want to risk being a loser again. Also, don't forget that he has pending legal and financial issues to sort out after his presidency is over.
I suspect you will see someone else, maybe someone from the Trump family, run again with a Trump-like platform. They may very well win if the Democrats can't recalibrate their platform to appeal to more voters in electorally important states. I'm seeing a lot of wishful thinking regarding getting rid of the electoral college and it is frankly laughable. It's not happening anytime in the next 50 years. Small states will never give up that power. The best you could do is convince GOP leaders in 'purpling' states like TX to opt for a proportional assignment strategy to rob the Dems of the entire block of electoral votes once the state goes fully blue.
I think Donald Trump is about to become a "Kingmaker."
Trump TV.
He's going to broadcast his message 24 hours a day. Attacking everything Democrats do, attacking every Republican who reaches across the aisle.
He'll have on everyone who agrees with him.
This may be on OAN, or he'll make his own new channel.
Remember when liberals laughed that the'd love it if Donald Trump ran for President?
What if he started a new political party?
I mean, on the face of it, people would say, yes, draw votes away from Republicans.
But... What if they start winning elections at the state level, and then in Congress, and on?
If I were Rupert Murdoch, I'd be negotiating to set this up right now.
If I were Donald Trump, I wouldn't let anyone else own any of it. I'd let them advertise.
I think people would be disappointed by the Biden presidency. He cant do anything to fight globalization. The wages will average out world over. Rich countries will be the first to face the worst of it.
This will support a authotorian wave in the coming few years. They will just need to attack from the left.
Trump running would be their worst nightmare and a boon for Democrats. Very old, super-unfiltered and record-breaking as the first national candidate to run from prison (not out of the question). He could easily be the Ross Perot version 2.0 that nobody wants.
Trump did better in the election than predicted, and he has a very solid base. Without Covid the outcome might have been different.
That being said, I hope that you are right.
So could you. I'm not sure what your point is? That is about the most ridiculous statement ever.
Career republican politicians HATE TRUMP whether they admit it or not. They had to put up with it, and kiss his ass, and fuck them for it. But they aren't stupid.
Trump is done. If you honestly think he has any chance after this is over I don't think you have been paying attention over the years.