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Does Google? They've been publishing cool papers for many years but the experience while using Google Maps has been consistently highly-unrealistc ETAs with things like unprotected left turns across 4 lanes of traffic “saving” time (in areas like DC, NYC, BOS, etc. where they have tons of data, too).

Maybe this is the iteration where the results will actually match the publications but it's been years since Apple Maps wasn't consistently more accurate on actual arrival time for me.

In my experience it is very reliable in France and Belgium.

Whether on my 800-km, 8-hour trip to go to my parents across countries, or on my 150 km weekly commute (across countries as well actually) the traffic is consistently accurate and the ETA is almost always correct to a few minutes. In the worst case, maybe Google will expect 20 minutes extra time entering France or entering Antwerp when it's actually 30 minutes this particular day. But that's a very acceptable error on a 2-hour trip.

Of course, this was true in 2019 but I didn't have the occasion to keep doing these trips in 2020. Also, I can't compare with Apple Maps which isn't available on my smartphone.