And they couldn’t estimate accurately how fast the Taliban was recapturing Afghanistan, a country they occupied for over a decade! Too many cooks in that kitchen!
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Of course they could. Why are people this naive? Nevertheless the administration simply did not care. It was time to shift the theatre of war elsewhere and that's that.
Look who's naive. The war was marketed as an attempt to kill one person. A month after the war started, that person left Afghanistan and never came back. After ten years, someone who vaguely resembled the original target was allegedly killed in a different nation, although somehow the corpse was never photographed or examined. After another ten years, it was twenty years past time to end the war.
Our unsupervised services might have suspected that it would all go to shit, but they expected that to take several months rather than several days. It's stupid to argue about, however, because the war should have ended after a month, when ObL left Afghanistan!
Wendover did an interesting video on the logistics of Afghanistan, including the collapse of the ring road which hampered intelligence efforts.
Of course they could not - the gravy train for 20years... what's not to like