High-quality commercial satellite photos are a thing now. Is there decent evidence that Russia is building up the sort of supply & logistics tail needed to support a major invasion? Or just a bunch of shorter-range and token actions - which still would give Moscow "Regional 900 lbs. Gorilla" bragging rights, but at <5% of the cost.
Maybe western powers are talking big about sanctions & such to make it even cheaper for Moscow to feel big. (Vs. actual military action, which tends to kill a lot of people even when "nothing goes wrong".)
And maybe The Guardian does have a passably sophisticated understanding of the situation. But I don't see much evidence of that.