I think the point is that the sequence is searchable within the database of known viruses (virii?) and it is not speculation, it literally does not exist in any sequenced virus in the wild. I'm not sure what you mean with the goalposts comment.
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That doesn't prove anything, of course.
And by "goalposts" I mean that if you recall, the initial allegation was that COVID was a bioweapon developed by the Chinese. Then it was negligently leaked from a lab doing gain of function research funded by Obama. Then it was just leaked. People seem to want to believe this theory regardless of when facts get in the way. A year ago, there wasn't much evidence against it. Now there are animal finds in Laos that make some of the connection. Not proof, but positive evidence. From the field.[1] Not from cherry-picked database searches.
At some point, you have to ask yourself with Ockham's razor: if it really is this simple, then why isn't it widely accepted? Has China gotten to everyone? If so, then why can I post this to my substack? Sometimes the expert opinion is right. I guess sheeple like me will never know. Except in reality, I'm quite open to this hypothesis, I am already a China hawk so I need no motivation there. I just don't think there's as much evidence as people who want to believe this think there is.
For what it's worth, using the model of radius->radii for virus->*virii makes sense until you realize radius has an extra 'i' already. Worse, it's a second declension neuter despite the -us and so should be vira just like modicum->modica, whereas radius is second declension masculine.
I don't know much about this particular topic at all -- but your Ockham's razor point is a really bad one; history is replete with instances of "very simple and also correct answers/solutions/theories" that are considered quackery or wrong at the time.
If you believe in all the conspiracy theories, you're a sucker, but if you believe there are ZERO conspiracy theories, you're also a sucker.
It seems you might be lumping me in with some other claims that I have not made. I agree that it is wise to stick with the facts and keep speculation to a minimum. It is a shame that this topic has become so politicized because we deserve answers. We cannot prove what did happen, but through careful observation we maybe can eliminate the impossible.
You replied to me and I replied not to you, but to the original post.
Fair enough, although I am the OP. You may find this equally disingenuous, but I hope you are right about animal origins. I would sleep much better.
I would think someone with domain knowledge would be able to debunk this posts interpretation right?
It's not the responsibility of people with domain knowledge to go around and debunk every substack post. But to believe this post you have to believe that no one else discovered this, or, of they did, they are suppressing it.
Which is comical. Most scientists would rush to publish a new finding and take credit. There's no "establishment" conspiracy to suppress evidence of the lab leak theory. The Biden administration ordered further investigation as one of their first acts. No suppression there. So, who then? The WHO is being too nice to China? I agree! Doesn't prove anything.
If it's as easy as the OP says, we would know.
This is a false conjecture. Chinese scientists experienced a clamp down on virology publishing around the original time of the outbreak, and at this point there is social stigma attached to lab leak that may very well encourage people not to publish.
Nevermind the diplomatic implications. If, hypothetically, tomorrow the official stance of the U.S. Government changed to hold that China was responsible for the manufacture of the virus, that despite the part the U.S. had in funding it being facilitated by failures in process at NIH, this would signal a sizable shift in attitude toward the Chinese, and could very well escalate tensions to a degree no one has a stomach for.
>There's no "establishment" conspiracy to suppress evidence of the lab leak theory. The Biden administration ordered further investigation as one of their first acts. No suppression there.
You have no idea how much classified data and information may exist. There is a whole corpus of knowledge kept out of the public's view for years because of how the Executive feels about how much more complicated it would make their lives. I would not dismiss official perception management as quickly as you do. The government does not hint. It does not offer, and leaves it to the public to do their own research until such time as the public largely figures it out independently; and then still will not confirm or deny. Look into how the body of knowledge around nuclear weapons was cobbled together by uncleared or non-government affiliated researchers. FOGBANK was such a closely guarded secret, it had to have it's manufacturing process reserved. Same with various B-1 part manufacturing processes.
I have no idea how old you are, or how much time you spend observing how groups of people work and behave emotionally, but it's fairly obvious to me that this type of finding is something no one with an appreciation for second order effects wants to let out of the bottle without a lot of thought, or blind faith it is the RIGHT thing to do; least of all those virologists who either truly believe GoF research is necessary, or those that wish to conduct research without a billion hoops to jump through. Further, not all the old-timers from WWII are dead yet, and those with parents who lived through the Cold War are fairly certain that if it comes down to a WWIII, there may not be a return to any semblance of normality in the aftermath. This is exactly the kind of flashpoint in history that resonates with lighting that kind of fuse.
Maybe it's like there is a $20 bill on the ground and everybody is believing in efficient markets.