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Wow, I knew that Wuhan studied pathogens, but didn't know it was the first one in the country, and recently certified to study the most dangerous pathogens. This definitely nudges my bayesian posterior on the lab leak theory.
I'm sorry I had to create an account just to comment on this. That's not how bayesian conditional probability works. It's not just, read an article, feel strongly about something, adjust priors based upon your strong feelings. It requires domain expertise and experimentation, so a mix of frequency perhaps, or at least past experience as a basis for adjusting a prior. The reason from a bayesian perspective why the lab leak is so unlikely is because of the vast majority of human interaction with viral material, the base case, is via natural interactions, food, medicine, digging up soil, etc. Following proper SOP in a lab environment has orders of magnitude less base rate chance of a human interaction with a virus. Now we get into the, "purposeful lab leak hypothesis," which is now getting into conspiracy theory territory so I won't touch that, but a pure, "leak," is highly unlikely, using bayesian probability, simply due to the base rate comparison.