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by richardatlarge·4y ago·view on hn ↗
Two things in this article seem bogus, and a I wonder what drives this scare mongering

First, the experts cited want us to believe a more contagious variant is possible if not likely. This seems dubious given a single droplet of exhaled moisture containing the Omicron virus can create disease

Second, there is the suggestion of a more lethal variant that spreads like Omicron— we don’t worry endlessly about other viruses we now catch mutating into something more awful, so why be so concerned about COVID- it’s never really shown itself capable of becoming more virulent- just more contagious

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> This seems dubious given a single droplet of exhaled moisture containing the Omicron virus can create disease

Omicron has a R0 of about 10 (unsure), Measles is at 12-18. Why do you believe that it can't get higher.

And for the "single droplet", we spent an entire week-end in the same place, followed by 4 hours in a car, 4 people, one got tested positive with symptoms the next day, none of the others got it, including one who wasn't vaccinated and slept in the same bed. I guess we shared a lot of droplets. This is an anecdote, but many people share similar stories.

> we don’t worry endlessly about other viruses we now catch mutating into something more awful

We do, we know that the flu is capable of doing that and we are keeping close watch. We worry about covid in particular because it is a new virus that is not yet endemic, it has infected hundreds of millions of people and maybe animals, and every infection is potential breeding ground for new variants, and alpha then delta have shown that it can get more virulant.

What scientists say is real. It doesn't mean we should panic, but it is something that needs to be considered by policymakers. Lifting restrictions is one thing, but should we stop testing and sequencing, close down COVID ICUs, etc...?

We almost certainly should be more worried about the risks here, because climate change is very likely to alter the transmissability of many diseases, zoonotic or not, and we have far higher social mobility than in previous decades.

Right at the point in time bacterial infection risks are also rising because of the decline in viability of many antibiotics.

"Oh, but the risk here is about viruses not bacteria" you say. Well guess what many people who are placed on ventilation, or any kind of intrustive breathing assistance, inside hospitals get...