Item — HN Reader

They care deeply. China is >10x in pretty much everything. They don't to be a vassal state of China. Russia has lost the independence twice - threat from Asia and threat for united countries between Moscow and Berlin.

I'd speculate the whole action is to force the West to a new deal with Russia, so they can balance China.

3 comments

> I'd speculate the whole action is to force the West to a new deal with Russia, so they can balance China.

I think any trust that Russia still enjoyed in the west is gone as of today. A few days ago the official Russian position was "Nobody is planning an invasion of Ukraine." Today, Russia has invaded Ukraine. This is not how you make deals.

If anything, I'd have thought it's likely to go the other way: China gets to play the relatively responsible global citizen that doesn't send in tanks to resolve its territorial claims. Also new potential export markets.

I thought Putin was doing the show of power for domestic consumption where he'd embarass the West by actually withdrawing the armies slightly after he promised and it'd all end in a summit with both sides claiming they 'won', but he's gone well beyond that now.

>I'd speculate the whole action is to force the West to a new deal with Russia, so they can balance China.

If they are serious about partnering with the west, they should have embraced reforms and become a member of NATO. The fact that they haven't is indicative of Putin's plan to counter the west. It's more likely they will partner with China just because Putin isn't thinking beyond that. He's 70 after all and they have no effective playbook against China (ala Foundation of Geopolitics against the west).

> they should have embraced reforms

They tried that in the 90s. There are two problems. They don't want to be a colony for Western powers. Russia is a collection of a few different nations. You have to hold it by a strong hand, otherwise you have a civil war e.g. Chechnya.

So they want to do it now on partner relations with Europe. Russia will provide, natural resources, transportation link to Asia, you can relocate polluting factories to Siberia, you get access to our market and labor. Also, you we will provide security and balance China. You don't need those pesky Americans. In return Russia wants, capital, tech and modernisation of the country.

So Europeans, do you want EU from Lisbon to Vladivostok or war?

trains and artic route.

You don't partner with nations by forcing them into a corner. That's not partnership, that's conquest.

The USSR lost the cold war. The fact that they want to have their cake and eat it too is the root of the issue. The compromise to be admitted into the western system is actually pretty mild, and there are many strong nations within the western framework. Russia would have no problems operating on a similar level as Japan or France if they gave up their desire for geopolitical hegemony.

>threat for united countries between Moscow and Berlin.

Are you talking the PLC or the Nazis?

Polish-Russian War (1605–1618) and Unity Day.