"Common sense" does not apply - or is worse than useless - in areas where one has no actual deep experience. Which in this case would mean certain virologists, epidemiologists, etc.
Simple test: Ask some old Maritime provinces fishermen about how the weather, sun, moon, coastal shape, currents, and dredged shipping channels interact to determine high tide levels along the coast. Then ask a bunch of folks whose experience doesn't include anything "ocean", "sea", or even "great lake" to give your their "common sense" on that subject.