Firstly can't ignore the rise of putin and him gaining more power & popularity after similar attacks. He at least used to be broadly popular, even though he messes with the actual elections.
And a LOT of Russians support the war.
Here is a poll I put in another comment puts at 58% support. I read another I think from Navalny said 50% but I can't find it so grain of salt.
complicated given they only see lies on TV.
But at this point the conscript soldiers know what they are doing. A lot of Russians ARE connected to the West and know the truth.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-publi...
Not when the consequence of that is being beaten up, tortured, and then put in prison for up to 15 years (as per the recent law changes). Oh, and getting your relatives punished as well, despite them having nothing to do with it. Here is a take on it from Human Rights Watch[0]. Just the knowledge of such consequences makes a person just shut down, carry on, and not worry much about anything except your own and your family's survival.
Side-tangent: sometimes I really do wonder what kind of cushy and sheltered lives some users on HN live, where they instantly jump to "if people don't protest in millions, it means they support Putin". I think I am pretty comfortable now, but I still very clearly remember what it was like living in Russia (before I escaped to the US over a decade ago), so these types of replies grind me the wrong type of way.
And yes, there are plenty of people who actually support Putin in Russia, and we need them on our side. Some support him out of ignorance, some for other reasons. But, I think, it is a bit less surprising if you phrase it as "Plenty of Russian people supported the special operation for liberating people in Ukraine". It is a blatant lie, but more and more people in Russia are opening their eyes to this being total bs. Sanctions help, outside news drumming up the reporting of the conflict help.
On their own, those things don't seem that wild, but if you couple total brainwashing with extremely severe and brutal consequence for even questioning the narrative, you get an extremely repressed population that will be heavily discouraged (even within their own heads) from protesting.
0. https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/03/09/russia-brutal-arrests-an...
This narrative that Putin is somehow solely waging a war with the entire population in opposition is an absolute meme. If the Russian people were sick of him they'd depose him, elections or no elections, Russians have done it to their leaders plenty of times.
In any country as vast and populous like Russia leaders always depend on the consent of the governed autocratic or not. I know it doesn't fit into this comical worldview where every Russian is secretly an American yearning to breathe free, oppressed by Putin.
I hope putin will be the second case.