I struggle with this (kiddo is at the stage will be applying in a few years, so have thought about it), as it essentially relies on network effects with a large/unknown variance. (Is the MBA network comparable to OPs path?)

What do people peg the OPs chances of following the stated career path at State vs MIT?

(Disclaimer, have gotten a terrific education at state schools and have what I take to be a reasonably successful career from that starting point. So default bias to choose state over more expensive alternatives.)