back

by oxplot·4y ago·view on hn ↗
> If that were true we'd have had fully autonomous FSD 5 years ago

Genuine doesn’t mean what you think it means. FSD is late because Elon underestimated it while working on it as fast as Tesla can, not because he’s a liar who’s walking his dog around the office instead of running the business and rebranding Siemens machines as his own.

1 comments
If he had only said it once, sure. But Elon has repeatedly, year after year made the same claim only for it to turn out false. So either he's lying knowing full well it won't come to fruition, or he's incapable of accurately assessing progress. I strongly suspect the former, especially given his relationship with the truth on other things, but the latter makes him just as unreliable source of information.
> he's incapable of accurately assessing progress

He has admitted time and time again, on twitter and in interviews, that FSD has been a series of "local maximas" which each time given him and his team a false sense of reaching the full self driving capability. So yes, when pushing the edge of tech, it's not easy to estimate timelines and he's admitted that. What more do you want? For him to call it quits or get into magic and pull rabbits out of a hat?

A single space telescope, the James Webb's, which is far less involved than FSD (runs in controlled environment, albeit harsh, doesn't interact with anything but well known objects and is produced once with little cost optimization, since it's not sold in mass volumes and need not attract customers) has been delayed time and time again and run over budget by multiple factors, amounting to billions of dollars. No one said along the way that the project leaders were liars who knew they couldn't build the telescope but just wanted to spend tax payers money.