As of this movement, yes, but in the future USA won't be able to keep the hegemony. Right now there is a leverage on energy (oil and gas from middle east) and the cheapest from of transportation (maritime). USA can block both via Ormuz and Malacca. In 20-30 years China and Europe will be energy and resource independent. If land transportation* will be more cost effective than ships, USA hegemony is gone.
*hyperloop/magnetic rail/other
This geopolitical model predates modern energy dynamics; in any case, Siberian minerals will flow to Chinese and European factories for a long time to come. This model also doesn’t require American dominance. (Again, it dates from the age of British and Austro/Russo/French power.) A future Leviathan could operate with Europe and America on co-equal footing, versus the D.C. dominance we see today.
As for land transport becoming more efficient than ocean, that’s a pipe dream. We’re talking about orders of magnitude of cost difference between the cutting edge of where rail/loop could be in a decade and where an inefficient shipping industry is today. Rail is also less resilient in times of war, as we’re seeing with Russia, being more targetable (Ukraine) and deniable by intermediaries (Kalingrad).
The real tipping point in favour of the Leviathan, however, comes with air forces and missiles, force projection options which didn’t exist when the model was conceived. Xi’s strategic fuckup has been in failing to see that China, too, could command a Leviathan. In an alternate timeline, a patient and thoughtful China is signing trade deals and security compacts with the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia Korea and maybe even Taiwan and Japan. Instead, Beijing Bethemothed the islands which encircle China into an adversarial stance, a stance they can maintain thanks to the stopping power of water, and a position which prevents China from projecting blue ocean naval power.
I don't remember exact numbers from 2019, but it was something like:
Air: 1 metric tonne: $100, 24h
Rail: $40; 10 days
Ship: $8; 30 days
Let's say it's 2049 and we have 4 powers: new Europe, USA, China and India. China starts the full scale blockade of Taiwan to wait for the USA for the kinetic escalation. Only USA ships are blocked, so Japan, Korea, Europe do nothing. The situation last for years. The freight cost goes up massively due to risk, the fuel is 2x-3x more expensive - cheap oil is gone and the last big reserve is in Arctic. Magnetic rail China-Europe is finished and you stack up 3 containers which are delivered in 48h. Land transportation became better than ships.
> Rail is also less resilient in times of war
True, but the new Europe will be neutral is the USA-China conflict.
> Xi’s strategic fuckup has been in failing to see that China, too, could command a Leviathan
I don't think Xi made a mistake. I don't think we have a reliable data from China. China started shrinking due to Covid way sooner that the models predicted. The official number about 12 mln births, but that doesn't correlate well with mandatory tuberculosis vaccinations. The real number could be 9 mln. Xi perception might be he has 10 years not 30. What is more, I think China is like Japan in 1930. From China's perspective there is no option - we fight or we die.
The more optimistic scenario: Xi is gone. USA makes Kissinger 2.0 - a deal that must be secret. USA does nothing and China takes over Taiwan without the invasion. North and South Korea is demilitarised. China still uses USD.
How did a blockade around Taiwan turn into a global maritime halt? Magnetic rail and ships have similar energy inputs; if energy is going up for one it’s going up for the other. (Turning electricity into dense, portable stores isn’t trivial, but it’s comparable to long-distance electrical transport.) That rail link would also remain easier to strike than the world’s merchant fleet.
I don’t think American dominance is here to stay. But it’s highly unlikely a Europe-China nexus works, versus a rebalance America-Europe-Japan relationship. (There are no situations in which a belligerent China peacefully wins over Japan.)
Not a halt but increase of costs. 2/3 of world trade is near Taiwan. The insurance premiums will skyrocket. USA aka World Police will be busy with China, which will lead to tensions in other places and piracy. Business will pick rail if it's a bit more expensive (say 20%) and you get products faster.