[1] https://www.prisonpolicy.org/blog/2020/01/16/percent-incarce...
Your own personal odds are rarely the same as the average odds across the whole population. For anything. That's why insurance companies can exist.
They are always watching. Always collecting your data and trolling through it looking for things to use against you. You might not face consequences from the ongoing surveillance, but it never stops and something as simple as being in the wrong place at the wrong time or typing the wrong combinations of words in a search engine can be enough to get you questioned by police.
You can always make choices that will make your situation worse, but no matter what you do or don't do there's really no telling what might cause you harm.
People resist this notion because psychologically, on a basic level, we wanna feel safe at home. In Maslow's ordered sets of needs, the need to feel safe at your resting spot comes right after "not being beaten", "not freezing" and "not starving". The idea that it's entirely unknowable to you what (completely innocent and legal) things you might have done ten years ago turn you into a "PoI" today is - obviously - quite scary and contrary to that.