These AI tools are not static. They are products with well funded teams behind them constantly iterating to make them better.

I don’t dismiss them, but I do put a low weight on arguments of the form “AI is not there yet” give how far it has come in the last 5 years. By 2030, I can see a product understanding the context of a system from multiple repos and, given an intent, producing code and deployment infra that adds new features respecting constraints

This is good. A single dev will be able to do the work of a full team and then every small business will be able to develop software that suits their specific needs with a couple of dedicated employees