"Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants"

There's no metaculus tournament for a nuclear strike.

"In February, after the invasion of Ukraine, greater public attention was paid to the possibility of nuclear escalation. Given the gravity of the topic, we temporarily set this tournament private to review and reinforce our security infrastructure."

https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecastin...

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of...

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10154/radiation-incident...