back

by david927·3y ago·view on hn ↗
> probable recession

Not to be pedantic, but we're already in a recession, defined by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. What's coming for the US and EU, given bad debt levels and inflation levels, is much, much worse than that.

To your question: I would say, look for roles at organizations which are likely to ride out the storm. I think you can't be overly cautious (in all financial aspects) for the next years.

1 comments
If you want to get really pedantic the US is not officially in recession until the NBER says so [1].

[1] https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/recession

How can economists say, for instance, Argentina is in a recession? Or Ireland? Or Australia?

Does the NBER make such determinations for all countries? Ha.

Are you being pedantic por are you being gullible?

The term recession has been well-defined in economics for decades.

> The term recession has been well-defined in economics for decades.

It's been so thoroughly defined, that there are even multiple conflicting definitions.

Which is all to avoid having to admit you're in a recession to avoid the self-fulfilling prophecy aspects of that.

Economists, of course, have a lot of pressure sometimes to avoid speaking the truth, lest they exacerbate the situation. I get that.

Again, I'm not concerned that we're "going into a recession." I'm concerned that we're going into a depression, or decades of stagflation, or war.

At least, according to the NBER.