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I agree, but in the sense that Mac super users understand the limitations of the App Store and would rather not wade through the crapware, poor search, and lack of selection due to the App Store's sandboxing policy. I don't think typing a few commands in the command line is really that much of an impediment to the average user—it's lack of awareness.
I don't know what the average user of your target audience is, but I've interacted with more people that thought their internet was broken because their homepage got a new lick of paint than I've interacted with people who could open up a terminal and copy/paste a command.

Making people follow a step-by-step guide is already a challenge on its own. Manuals are discarded because people consider themselves too good to need to read them, even if they have no idea what they're doing.

If you distribute your code in a way that's harder than clicking on a file and maybe dragging it into a folder, you're going to leave users stranded.

These days almost everyone may have a computer or tablet, but the average computer literacy hasn't gone up since the 90s. Especially on platforms like Apple's, which tries its hardest to hide away difficult concepts like "files" and "directories", you're going to need to babyproof your software for the average audience.

Now, if your target audience has a higher than average technical skill (programmers etc.) then you can get away with curl|bash no problem. Even still, I've had to help full-time developers on Windows open a command prompt several times because it's just not what they'll use in their normal day job, so even curl|bash may be too much to ask for some people in a strictly technical target audience!

Hmm. I really don't think you have interacted with many "average" users. Once I get out of my engineering circle, the number of people who would be comfortable interacting with the command line is extremely small. To the majority of modern computer users, even the concept of a terminal and typing commands is completely foreign, let alone navigating the file structure via the command line. And oh by the way, on the Mac at least, you also many have to teach them how to give the Terminal app Full Disk Access privileges.
Possibly, but you may be underestimating the degree to which the App Store hampers the average user from getting the applications they need. Users think it's easy to use, yes, but they don't know enough to know better.

Homebrew's search is better, and there are more applications available. Many applications aren't on the App Store at all, so one needs to Google and download possibly unnotarized .dmg archives. Surely this is no easier than Homebrew.

It's not hampering though, the "average user" can often get apps from elsewhere. Mainstream companies offer binaries available from their websites (Chrome, Slack, etc.) that don't require the App Store at all -- but most will have a signed Developer ID too (among other reasons) prevent the Gatekeeper bypass being needed.

Homebrew's search isn't better if the average user isn't familiar with or used to the command line.

The "possible unnotarized .dmg archives" is a straw man and distracts from the main point -- GP just doesn't want to spend the $99/year.

You've now got multiple people stating that your understanding of view of the average user seems substantially skewed, maybe it's worth taking a look at that.

I find the App Store perfectly fine for getting the applications I want and need. Yes, I think it's easy to use: how can I be wrong about that?

>...they don't know enough to know better.

is rather snarky and condescending IMHO

Most Mac users I know are familiar with iTerm and it's basics, even if they don't really understand the shell. Makes sense too, it feels like 1-in-5 MacOS quirks I want to fix need a CLI command and a reboot.
I have NO IDEA what iTerm is nor do I know what a shell or CLI command are.
> I have NO IDEA what iTerm is

I still would posit post people do. It comes pre-installed on your Mac, and even gets an appearance in the app launcher and Spotlight.

Give it a chance, I guess? This is one of those "XKCD's lucky 10,000" moments: https://xkcd.com/1053/

I disagree. You will find this hard to believe but I have never used the app launcher or Spotlight. Full disclosure: I bought my first Mac in 1988 (Macintosh SE) for my then 5-year-old daughter and have used Macs ever since.