Let's check this empirically. Which cartel-like brands are publicly traded and publish financial reports? We can look at their profit margins next quarter.
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Unilever's net profit over 2022 increased by 24.9%
It's probably better to look at the margin, I could see how the profits increased in absolute numbers as people may have switched from eating out to home-cooked food.
Profit margin increased by 230 base points that represents a 14% higher margin.
130 basepoints if you use GAAP measures so only ~7% higher margin then but clearly unilever doesn't just have higher costs but is also increasing their margin.
Do restaurants get their groceries from completely different supply chains than the rest of us?
Sure, the distributors are different, but I'd assume it's all still Monsanto, Unilever, etc., at the end of the day anyway.
I don't know, but I would not be too surprised if local / smaller producers are a bit better represented for restaurants. In any case, profit margin should not be sensitive to this.
Margin will also help discount issues resulting from Covid; a company that lost money during Covid (think restaurant suppliers) would go to a profit when it was over, but are they making MORE margin (percentage) than they were before Covid?
P&G and Nestle' are the usual examples