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by alephnerd·3y ago·view on hn ↗
The topic of decoupling has only become mainstream/noticed by normies in the last 1-2 years.

In reality, there has been an active economic decoupling going on since 2012-13. The primary manufacturers for intermediate parts (the main portion of the supply chain that Chinese industry is competitive in) are Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese conglomerates like SK Hynix, Samsung, LG, Toshiba, Panasonic, NEC, Mitsubishi, Foxconn, etc. All these companies began leaving for ASEAN in the 2012-17 period when political crises between PRC-Japan (Senkakou/Diayou Islands), Taiwan, and South Korea (THAAD) lead all 3 countries to move FDI to Vietnam or reopen factories in Thailand and Malaysia that moved to PRC in the 2000s. And this isn't just in Hardware. Even in Software, American VC investment in PRC peaked in 2015 before crashing after that.

Basically, what I'm trying to say is those of us who have worked in or work adjacent to the policy space know that we are in a period of elevated tensions between the PRC and the US, but it's not at the "we're going to start a shooting war" level yet. The kind of hyper-hawkish and paranoid rhetoric among "normies" is ridiculous and I say that as a China Hawk. But then again, if you have intimate knowledge of how those specific agencies and governments operate, it starts looking less scary.

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I mean if we just look at economic and diplomatic arenas war may not be on the table. The military policy on both sides are acting in a way where war is an inevitable outcome they must prepare for. China is practicing on mockups of US ships and building systems designed to take out US military assets. US military is in the process of dispersing forces to smaller bases in preparation. China's military practiced a full naval blockade of Taiwan this past summer. Both sides are in a slow rolling mobilization.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/06/07/anticipatin...

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/15/asia/us-air-force-f-22-guam-t...

https://www.armytimes.com/news/2022/10/11/army-prepares-for-...

People may have been talking about decoupling for 1-2 years, but the military has been sprinting to prepare for the last decade. Look at the B-21 raider, there is a reason it was one of the quickest and most efficient programs in US contracting history.

The economic and diplomatic arenas are both canaries in the coal mine from a policy standpoint. When you see publicity around wargames, they are very much used as messaging to our own rivals.

I've seen an increase of these kinds of comments and conversations after the Russian invasion in 2022, but what most normies seem to have forgotten or not realized is that Russia and Ukraine have been in an actual shooting war since 2014, and US and NATO forces have been in actual armed conflicts with the Russian Armed Forces (not just Wagner) since 2015 in Syria and Libya.

The US (and our core Asia allies - Japan, Taiwan, Phillipines, SK) and China have not been in an actual shooting conflict yet. Situations of course can degrade, but you would have a very public leadtime of 6-9 months before any such conflict.