It is quite possible that we end up reaching GPT4-level performance with 125MB of weights in the end.

It’s interesting that more advanced machine learning is developed might prove him right. Who knows what sort of discovery might come as a result of entities that are able to “think” in different ways.

For his time, it must have seemed like such an unfathomable amount of storage. He had no frame of reference for how much data that really is. Today, we see the size of every file on our devices and have an intuition for how big things are (or can be). Only in the last thirty years did we really develop this sense.

The Turing test is necessary but not sufficient for AGI.

That said, I have yet to see a modern AI that actually passes the Turing test either:

> an average interrogator will not have more than 70 per cent, chance of making the right identification after five minutes of questioning.

LLMs can answer some questions fine, but within five minutes you're likely to find breakage even without consciously trying.

I'm impressed by his prediction. Producing indistinguishable-from-human communication is so complex that being off by only a few orders of magnitude is pretty good (and it may yet turn out it's possible to do using less storage).

And his timeline turned out to be pretty close.

"0.5% of an AGI is all the RAM anybody will ever need"

-- Bill Gates, in 1981