I see the "indie web" or "small web" vs. "centralized web" or "large-scale social media web" as very much mapping onto the "rural vs. urban" dichotomy. For that reason, as hopeful as I can be about a thriving indie web, I don't think we'll ever see it fully displace the large-scale centralized web.

In digital space, there is still value in adjacency and agglomeration (mostly due to easier UX, network effects, etc). Just as there are agglomerative effects of physical cities, so there is in the large-scale centralized web. This is largely due to the fact that most netizens are not savvy enough to set up their own sites, no matter how easy it may seem (at least to those of us that are on HN). In other words, my mom is never making a Mastodon account, but she is easily on Instagram. Now multiply that by hundreds of millions of people. Even the savvier centralized web users that have Linktrees from their Instagram bios are largely linking to other sites on the centralized/"urban" web.

But for there to be a thriving digital sphere, there must be many of us who opt to live in the "rural" parts, in the indie parts. There in the solitude and tranquility we are free to tinker, explore, and create for our fellow netizens that live in the "urban centers".

The optimal human existence spans both rural and urban environments, that's just as true in the digital realm as it is in the physical.