Item — HN Reader

> they aren't as invested in its success

> if the EV charging infrastructure doesn't improve it will severely hamper EV sales

These two statements are at odds.

They should be invested in its success for this exact reason.

We’re already seeing sales for EVs decline, and I think one of the main reasons — if not the main reason — is the lack of charging infrastructure.

It has to improve, or Tesla in particular will be hurting. The other manufacturers can still pivot back to ICE/hybrids. Tesla can’t.

2 comments

To clarify, I mean that they aren't as invested in its success as they previously were. Previously, every dollar of investment paid off in terms of hooking people on the Tesla brand. Now that's not the case.

The second statement, about bad infrastructure impeding EV sales, is consistent with this. But Tesla doesn't care as much about total EV sales as about Tesla's EV sales. The people who do care about total EV sales (and therefore about cross-platform chargers) are government officials who have set goals for EV adoption.

My guess is that these officials will see that they're not going to make those goals with the current infrastructure, and offer additional incentives/subsidies. At that time, Tesla can re-invest in their charger network.

I’m not sure if it’s wise for Tesla to play chicken with the government. It hasn’t had the best track record with policies around new technology.

If they’re betting on the government to pick up the torch and carry it forward, they better be right.

They have more to lose than anyone else if they’re wrong.

> We’re already seeing sales for EVs decline, and I think one of the main reasons — if not the main reason — is the lack of charging infrastructure.

I think cost and rage is the real problem. Electric motors are super fun to drive but the best among them can barley crack a 200 mile range under typical driving conditions whereas the best hybrids can triple that comfortably. The EV math just doesn't add up for most people.

Chinese EVs are coming out with 1000 km ranges this season. 500 miles in any weather will be available in mid and high end vehicle in a few years in the US. That's twice the distance I get in my $40K 2019 ICE vehicle. That CATL Shenxing PLUS 1000 km battery can charge for 375 miles in 10 minutes or the full 620 miles in 16.6 minutes.

I spend about 3-4 minutes to fill up for about 200 miles in my Mazda once a week (live rural so always try to fill up at or above quarter tank) so for commuting, this is getting awful close to ICE levels of time spent fueling. I'd charge at home mostly, because home ownership is a luxury I possess, but even if I used fast chargers exclusively, I could charge for a month of commuting in two 15 minute sessions or I could gas refuel in four 3.5 minute stops. Stopping at all is a hassle and so the extra stops for the ICE vehicle would balance out the extra 15 minutes per month charging. But again, I'd use home charging most of the time and reserve the fast charging in town for rare cases and for long-haul trips.

For regional trips, for example from the Bay Area to San Diego, Las Vegas, maybe even Portland, they can be done on a single charge. For longer trips, stop off at a 7-11 every 4-5 hours, take a piss, buy some snacks, and in 10 minutes you've got another 375 miles. You could go from San Francisco to New York City in 8 stops. That's a 3 day trip so two stops are at hotel stays and free leaving you with 6 stops of 10 minutes each to cross the country. I don't see any hardship there at all compared to ICE travel.

This all depends on 205 Wh/kg batteries arriving for US EVs. Even if the CATL battery pack doesn't make it to US EVs, some other pack will within a few years I'm sure. By 2030, I think for mid-sized and above cars, range will not be an issue. For small cars, where the batteries cannot be as large, people living in apartments without charging at work will have a slightly less convenient experience than with ICE. By 2035 when ICE vehicles are phased out, I expect even compact cars to have enough range and fast enough charging that everyone will be covered pretty well.

I agree, but I think this is a short term problem.

I think battery tech is improving, and range has been improving with each generation it seems.

I think it’s just a matter of time before EV range well exceeds range of ICE vehicles.

But that’s if EVs don’t get crippled by lack of infrastructure first.

Momentum is already starting to swing the other way, and now’s not the time for Tesla to play games with pulling out of improving charging infrastructure.

>I think it’s just a matter of time before EV range well exceeds range of ICE vehicles.

The CATL Shenxing PLUS LFP pack gets 205 Wh/kg which lets it go 621 miles on a 16.6 minute charge from the Shenxing Superfast Charging Network. A typical ICE mid-sized probably gets about 360 miles on a 4 minute gasoline fill-up so it's closing the gap with ICE in terms of time refueling even if you do zero at-home charging. If you have any at-home charging, you'll come out way ahead.

> the best among them can barley crack a 200 mile

How many people take 200 mile + road trips and how often? If there are enough DC fast charging infrastructure, where you can fill up say 40% of that range within a 15 minute rest stop, then that range is still not a problem. The issue currently is there isn't enough of those fast charging infrastructure.

CATL Shenxing PLUS battery pack does 621 miles. It can do 375 miles with 10 minutes of charge time (on a CATL 4C charger).

That's a bit out of date. The Model 3 LR will do 300 miles in the real world, and it's not the longest range out there.

saw a video the other day where plaid was used after 45k miles and i was 0.7 seconds slower than the advertised sale 0-60. If thats true, and it continues i imagine plaid drivers will be pissed

Isn't range basically the same issue as infrastructure?