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> After three straight years of record exports, wholesale watch exports have fallen by 2.4%
That sounds more like a return to the mean rather than "demand disappear[ing]"
The change is largely driven by trends in China
https://www.baiguan.news/p/china-luxury-swiss-watch-consumpt...
> After three straight years of record exports, wholesale watch exports have fallen by 2.4% [...] The drop in consumer demand has hit brands making slightly less expensive watches the hardest, while top-selling brands such as Rolex and Patek Philippe have been more resilient.
> Sowind’s Pruniaux said there are few signs of improvement from the Chinese economy, meaning the industry might only see a partial recovery in 2025. Sowind’s sales will likely be flat or will fall slightly in 2024, he said. That compares with growth of just under 10% last year and a near-doubling of sales in 2022.
Seems like a bubble bursting to me...
Down 2.4% doesn't seem like much. A bubble bursting would be 24% down.
Last I checked Chrono24 grey-market Rolex values for steel models were down by about that much from their post-COVID. This was a year or two back, however... have they come back up?
Linking a previous hn discussion regarding the flourishing lcd casio watch mod scene. They stuff these cheap watches full of sensors, stm32 micro-controllers, screenmods & everything. It's great stuff.
This article didn't mention it but luxury watch demand went up a lot, especially for Rolex, in 2020-2021. There was abnormal demand. Prices rose a lot on the grey/second hand market. Rolex designates the MSRP to dealers and grey market prices were actually substantially higher than the MSRP dealers are required to sell at. A lot of these watches could be dealers selling them under the table. That's presumably how new watches end up on the grey market. You can search around for it online where some articles mention it and a lot of blog posts and watch forums discuss prices back then.
What's interesting is why that happened. It was probably a result of having more free cash available.
The crazy aftermarket prices caused a lot of people to consider a Rolex watch as an investment rather than the status symbol it was supposed to be.
People who had no intention to wear a Rolex IRL flocked to dealerships for the sole purpose of reselling at a profit. Which further inflated the apparent demand, which again inflated aftermarket prices.
It was a bubble, pure and simple. There was a lot of liquidity sloshing around in Covid times that people didn't know what to do with. At least a watch lasts longer than a tulip, so this bubble won't burst as dramatically.
Inflation was crazy and collectibles looked like one of the possible exits.
IMHO, I think bitcoin ramping up in value starting holiday season 2020, Available cash and COVID did a lot to bubble the market as well.
I don’t think these were dealers selling them under the table either to pump prices. Last I’d heard, Rolex had a retail waiting list since before COVID started, may have changed recently.
Edit: Rolex also supposedly has a marketing budget percentage higher than most brands as well, so there may well be truth to them pumping prices in that manner.
Everything related to luxury and travel went up. It was usually explained as rebound from covid and free money. It might be a viral social media trend too
The thing about luxury watch makers is, the independent or family owned ones (Patek, Rolex) never seem to have a recession. LVMH and Kering own most of the other luxury brands and they mass produce these luxury watches. Patek for example cannot/will not produce more than a certain number of watches every year
It's just supply and demand.
If you are buying a luxury mechanical watch buy from an independent/family owned company rather than from LVMH or Kering.
Unless I'm out of date, Kering owned UN and GP, but sold them. The big player other than LVMH is Swatch, which owns Omega, Hamilton, Blancpain, Breguet, Longines, Tissot etc.
Do you have a specific watch you’d recommend?
I recommend and "independent watchmaker + in-house movement". Need not be Swiss.
If you are getting started with mechanical watches buy an Orient watch (https://orient-watch.com/). You can get one for < $200.
When you want to upgrade - Nomos (https://nomos-glashuette.com/en). $2500 +
Above this is what you can afford but always look for "independent watchmaker + in-house movement".
I also like the designs of Junghans (https://www.junghans.de/en/) but they use a thrid party movement.
Watch prices went up a lot over the past few years. As one example, an Omega Seamaster 300M was ~$3300 retail in 2018; now it's ~$6600. I'm sure that has more than a little to do with it.
That watch isn't 2x better now either.
It was never about how much better it was. Watches peak in actual quality in the hundreds. After that it’s just wank.
When I was living in Switzerland, I went to Basel World once (Swiss rail had a nice deal). It was...weird. 50k CHF watches were considered cheap, lots of Arab and Chinese buyers, but I felt like it was a different world.
At 2.4% drop in sales and if we assume that for this year this didn't expect a decrease and increase and assume that the normal standard deviation in sales data of 1%. This would mean that we have a 2.4 sigma deviation.
As a particle physicist I wouldn't even report this as evidence of a problem.
I assumed no increase as a more modest goal after a couple of years of record sales and the current problems in world economy.
It is interesting - I follow a bunch of "finstagram" accounts. A couple of years ago, there used to be weekly "show your watch on Friday" posts with Rolexes and such. I realized after reading this article that I haven't seen such a post in a very long time. Most of these accounts post a lot less these days as well. Guess the reduction in bonuses post the Covid boom has had a massive effect on the folks who bought these watches!
Luxury watches and clothes are mostly bought by poor people to signal other poor people that they have more money, and to signal actually rich people that they're stupid and financially irresponsible.
You never see your Zuckerbergs or Musks go around with flashy watches or clothes with Dolce & Gabana plastered over them. Those are mostly on average people who want to signal to their peers that they "made it".
> You never see your Zuckerbergs or Musks go around with flashy watches
5 seconds of searching Google pulls up examples for both.
No?
I’m sorry as much as I would like this to be true luxury watches are a sign of external wealth / conversation pieces for the wealthy (5/100M range I would guess)
Might not be the case for the tech wealthy crowd as I know these circles less
But for the traditional/family/business wealthy crowd watches are an easy icebreaker, especially if you mention you don’t care about the price and you like them for x other reasons
The truly rich seem to indulge in luxury goods that most average or wannabe or merely rich folks don’t even know about.
IIRC Zuck has closets full of seemingly mundane looking clothes (tshirts, hoodies) that actually have 4-5 $ figure price tags.
Sure they may not have GUCCI or SUPREME plastered all over them but they’re definitely luxury goods.
Likewise for watches. The wannabe rich might indulge in Rolexes but the very rich seem to indulge in watch brands I’ve never heard of.
Plus now you have brands playing the exclusivity card. Sure, you can save up for that Rolex or Hermes or Ferrari but they will refuse to sell it to you unless you’re a “somebody” or have “built up a relationship”.
If you're poor, how do you afford Luxury watches, I don't get it?
On the other hand, the richest people I know seem to wear Apple Watch Ultra a lot, even women who have smalls arms and it looks ridiculous on.
Rich people use them to transfer bearer instruments of wealth across borders without having to inform the gestapo.
May be they were luxury few decades ago but now they are useless. They cannot keep track of your sleep, steps, pulse, blood pressure, oxygen level. They don't have maps, messages etc.
I don’t think prices came down at all though. May be lowering reprises would increase demand but they don’t want to, or rather cannot to keep the brand premium. So it’s not news
Surprised to hear that Rolex is still “resilient,” most reports show all luxury brands are taking a major hit but not surprising that Ulysse Nardin and Girard Perrigeaux are hurting, the entire mid-to-high end luxury watch market got saturated not only by major brands keeping up with demand but lots of smaller, high-end microbrands such as Rexhep Rexhepi and H. Moser & Cie. entered or got noticed when the watch market got hot and boosted the market and also ate share.
One question I’m curious of is how many middle managers got furloughed versus labor?
I watched a lady at a club actually checking the wrists of men trying to hook up with her. So I guess it still has utility.
Yes, by not wearing one, you avoid women like this.
lol
Maybe people got tired of instagram show offs as it has diluted the coolness of having one
If that was the case Apple products and luxury cars would have died off long ago.
Apple products and luxury cars provide a lot more utility than a watch that does nothing extra than the phone already in everyone’s pocket. If you use smartwatch features like listening to music, talking on the phone, or paying, the non smartwatch is actually negative utility.
Apple products are pricy but they are not just looks, they are a superior design from hardware to software and ecosystem
I look forward to these going the way of Vertu.
It’s not temporary, the population pyramid is teetering.
These Swiss watches are status symbols for people that are over 60. Which means their market is dying off.
I can’t remember the last time I saw someone wearing a watch other than an Apple Watch. Maybe a couple Android watches.
> I can’t remember the last time I saw someone wearing a watch other than an Apple Watch. Maybe a couple Android watches.
You probably aren't actively looking. The market for sub-$150 retro-ish ("inspired" by the 1980s/1990s) quartz watches has exploded over the last few years [1].
A month or so ago, I "splurged" and bought a $300 solar-powered analog quartz watch. It will need a $10 battery replacement once every 15 years or so, and is simple enough to do at home with tools I already have.
This is just my opinion (and you seem like you are the opposite - that's fine), but I think that Apple has completely lost the plot with the Watch concept. It was supposed to be a companion device to the phone that helped reduce screen time while not missing anything important. Now, the Apple Watch is trying to be a kitchen sink on your wrist, with a battery situation that makes no sense. If you were to do all the health tracking it is capable of, you'd need to wear that watch 24 hours a day. But the battery doesn't even last that long. So you can't actually fully use all of the features. It makes no sense.
My Apple Watch has been in a drawer for I don't even know how many months. Where it will probably stay.
I used to wear a Tissot, but my Apple Watch is so much more practical. I never thought I'd go for Apple Watches since they look so.... nerdy. But within a week of wearing one, I was sold.
Today, I use it to Apple Pay for everything without whipping out my phone or wallet, from restaurants to transit (with Express Transit I don't even have to double click -- I just point my wrist at the card reader).
It tracks my sleep so I know to compensate accordingly if I'm not well rested... as in adjusting how much caffeine to consume.
Its alarms wake me up gently by buzzing (haptics) as opposed to a shrill phone alarm.
I can glance at it to see when my next meeting is, so I know how much time I have to dawdle. (I need my down time throughout the day)
It tells me how loud a room is in dB. You might ask, can't you tell by just listening? Yes, but when I know it in dB, I know whether the ambient noise is going to affect me over a long period of time and that I should use ear plugs or put on ANC headphones. 30-40 dB is ok, but anything above that is annoying. You don't realize how noisy a city truly is -- and cutting that noise out can really do wonders for head space.
It helps me to navigate while walking in the city -- it's easier and works better than than holding up a phone.
I only charge it when I shower (it goes from nearly 10% to full in minutes), otherwise I wear it 24/7.
You can do all of this with a phone, but having all of it on your wrist is just that much more seamless. (no need to whip out your phone)
I didn't miss my Tissot at all.
I’ve owned several Apple Watches, but none currently. I wear an automatic watch on a typical day, and have a Casio as my beater/travel watch (and about a dozen more I can probably pair down now that I think I have my perfect 2 watch collection).
I got sick of smartwatches. One more thing to change every night. One more thing to debate upgrading all the time. One more home screen to manage. More apps to update and deal with. More notifications and interruptions. It’s all too much.
With a little maintenance, my go-to watch will outlive me. My travel watch just needs a new battery when I renew my passport.
Which is why I break out my G Shocks every once in a while. I get sick of seeing Apple watches everywhere. The problem is they’re so damned useful so I always come back to it.
I would expect demand to slide a lot further as countries crack down on corruption.
How much of that market do you think or know was bought with corrupt money?
Looking at it from the outside there were big gains in crytpo and the stock market. Which drove a lot of buying. Now as there are wars raging, uncertainty about the biggest economies in the world and what their output will be in the coming years seems to be playing a larger part than corruption from what I am seeing.
Also the high end watch manufacturers seem to be shooting themselves in the foot by trying to control the secondary market for used watches which has driven used prices up. I feel the prices are at a point now where even very affluent people may not want to spend money on them as they are way overpriced compared to just 4 years ago.
> I would expect demand to slide a lot further as countries crack down on corruption.
Countries have been "cracking down on corruption" forever.