Item — HN Reader

Germany’s economic model is broken [0], weak consumer confidence [1] and 3 consecutive years of recession looms [2]. IMF puts it the best “Germany’s Real Challenges are Aging, Underinvestment, and Too Much Red Tape” [3]. It’s easier however to blame nuclear power (I do believe nuclear would help but too much emphasis) and immigrants (many of whom without which Germany would be in further crisis). Then, Germany will wonder why parties like AfD are having a major say in the parliament.

[0] https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/germany-economic-model-bro...

[1] https://www.wsj.com/economy/weak-german-consumer-confidence-...

[2] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-2025-economic-growth-forecast-...

[3] https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/03/27/germanys-rea...

3 comments

> and immigrants (many of whom without which Germany would be in further crisis).

Unlike many other countries, Denmark tracked statistics based on immigration status and origin, and found non-Western immigrants to be economically a net-negative:

https://inquisitivebird.xyz/p/the-effects-of-immigration-in-... (includes link to official Danish govt. report)

People will, as always, interpret this Danish study in whichever way suits their ideological beliefs. However, let me point out that, ideology aside, it is possible for a population to both be a net fiscal negative and yet have a positive influence on the economy.

An extreme instance of this is in slave societies. Slaves don't pay taxes and therefore are a net negative fiscally. Yet the taxes slave owners pay are largely drawn from slave labour and in fact the economy is essentially reliant on the slaves' work.

Likewise, it is possible that immigrants take on low-skilled, low-paid jobs, which are essential to the economy despite not directly contributing fiscally. This then could free the natives to perform more lucrative jobs and thereby contribute more than if immigrants were not there.

In Germany and particularly in the East, immigrants bring in 5.8% of the gross domestic product in value. Without immigrants, the economy would decline and with them, it actually grew.

https://www.iwkoeln.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Studien/Kurzber...

> found non-Western immigrants to be economically a net-negative:

Not really. Some non-Western countries do have positive contributions.

> immigrants bring in 5.8% of the gross domestic product in value

"As of 2019, around 13.7 million people living in Germany, or about 17% of the population, are first-generation immigrants." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Germany

Your comment is not related to my comment even though you quoted it.

It is directly related. I'll let you figure out how.

Publishing such findings would be racist in Germany.

Interesting take.

The government hasn't put out numbers how many job losses are tied directly to energy prices - but there's hundreds of articles like: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/24/basf-cut-jo...

Also, immigrants are unemployed at a higher rate than non-immigrants (7% higher for recent immigrants: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp1606.pdf).

I imagine this has little impact on the non-immigrant population - but it is a contributor to why total unemployment is rising (the headline).

Energy, being a commodity, is priced at the marginal rate. In other words, its price is currently based on the cost of LNG fed generators. This would be true whether or not Germany had more nuclear.

Germany is in a weird state. On one hand, it really does have vacancies for jobs, On other hand it has onerous beaurcraric red tape which doesn't allow immigrants (extremely capable, not just refugees) to do those jobs mostly due to language but also other things. It seems to have created this dilemna for themselves.

Not difficult to see if you live in the country.

Every single immigrant speaks perfect German, most of them refuse to speak English.

It's more the opposite in Sweden from my experience.

So, good luck with the language project, I guess.

Leaving people with no future causes a lot of trouble for everyone in the long run.

As someone living in Germany my opinion is that migration itself is not the real issue: The vast majority of migrants settle in big cities, which remain economically vibrant and offer a high quality of life¹. In contrast, rural areas—where migration is far less common—are often where the strongest opposition to immigration is found².

This pattern may sound familiar to Americans. In the U.S., cities like New York and Los Angeles have large immigrant populations but remain economic powerhouses, while rural areas—where immigration is relatively low—often show the highest levels of anti-immigrant sentiment³.

The real issue isn't migration itself but economic neglect. Under Angela Merkel, Germany pursued neoliberal economic policies that prioritized privatization and austerity, particularly affecting state-funded infrastructure, with crumbling bridges and (compared to what existed prior) dysfunctional systems. Rural areas, which depend more on public investment for services like hospitals, transportation, and education, suffered disproportionately[4]. The same pattern is visible in the U.S., where the decline of manufacturing and the erosion of public services have hit rural areas hardest, fueling resentment toward an urban elite perceived as benefiting from globalization[5].

This is where migration becomes a scapegoat. If people in struggling rural areas feel abandoned by the government while seeing urban centers with visible immigrant populations receiving public investment, they may (wrongly) conclude that immigrants are the reason for their economic struggles. This misdirected resentment, rather than any real economic harm caused by migration, is what drives much of the anti-immigrant sentiment in both Germany and the U.S. [6]

The solution isn't restricting migration—it’s reinvesting in rural communities, improving infrastructure, and addressing the economic roots of resentment. Without that, xenophobia will persist, even in places where immigrants are few and far between.

¹: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2023/10/international-m...

²: https://www.fes.de/referat-demokratie-gesellschaft-und-innov...

³: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/02/the-most-an...

[4]: (It appears superscript signs bigger than 3 aren't supported on Hn) https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.82967...

[5]: https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-left-behind-rural-ame...

[6]: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/567191/the-far-righ...

As someone living here as well, kind of agree.

Additionally right extreme movements take advantage of this, by being the main parties helping to take care of rural areas, improving school infrastructures and such, getting people to vote on those that show up, an old trick already used last century.

On my own point, it appears that 79% percent of Germans are of the opinion that migration isn't the most pressing topic: https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Nur-Minderheit-haelt-Migration-f...