I'm always interested in hearing people out, but these legacy COBOL codebases are massive, complex behemoths. Certainly eyebrow-raising to hear someone say they are not complex.
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"Massive", "behemoths". The same words you'll hear when you ask a man about their manhood, or their biggest catch. First hand source, so must be true.
I also trust government workers to give fair representation of their work. And what you SWE write on their resumes or what OKRs when filling time to justify paycheck. :D
They're a couple of database "tables" and formulas, what else they would supposed to be, think about it. They might be archaic, they might gnarly, limited etc. but they are no match for a modern next.js with react, in a docker container on a VM, running in a AWS datacenter, managed by Terraform, yadaydayda...
They're not complex in the Big O sense, they are complex systems in the sense that they have to incorporate and reconcile organizational knowledge from very different domains - e.g. Ron Jeffries' "Why Is Payroll Hard" http://wiki.c2.com/?WhyIsPayrollHard - while working in a predictable fashion with implicit requirements on availability and consistency, which the average web app stack more often than not leaves as "someone else's problem"
Don't forget F77 codebases too.