One lede that gets buried when talking about 18F : they operate in a “cost recovery” model. Their funding comes from agencies that pay them for help.
There is no money saved eliminating 18F.
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We’ll have a list like that when the obscuring smoke clears. The FDA division clearing medical devices, for instance, used no taxpayer money.
The median case will be that spending stays even because of legal bills. I predict net Congressional spending will increase because DOGE itself will require a massive bailout.
Also everything left will become more expensive: anyone bidding on a government contract needs to allocate more overhead money to account for refusal to pay as well as additional legal and accounting expenses, and trying to hire anyone for federal jobs costs more for less-qualified applicants when they can expect to be treated like this.
When they talk about the government being too inefficient, it’s a promise rather than analysis.