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by yen223·1y ago·view on hn ↗
In the short term, there will be a direct revenue hit as the result of very uncertain policies causing investors to be more cautious.

In the long-term however, I think Australia is in a strong position to thrive, assuming the tariffs don't get rolled back (admittedly, a very big assumption). Australia isn't as reliant on exports to the US as other countries. Australia is one of the few countries in the world that recorded a trade surplus against the US.

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About 5% of exports form Australia go to the US. So not a big direct hit.

The biggest concern is what happens to China, where most of our exports go. Any problems there will impact Australia.

Yes. A slowdown in Chinese exports, may mean a slowdown in production, and hence a weakness in imports.

At the moment the future is uncertain, and that uncertainty spooks markets. But markets recover once certainly is restored.

Right now the uncertainty is mostly around the US consumer. Individually they're the big losers here. The goal of the tarrifs is to drive up consumer prices (to the point where local production is attractive. )

But local production takes time to create, so in the meantime they'll have to buy less. Once local production is in place, that will price output at market levels (meaning it stays expensive. )

The market for, say coffee, will fluctuate and production will rebalance somewhat. Americans will likely drink a bit less. But in the long run it'll just be normal.

So yes, the market hates an uncertain future, but certainty arrives pretty quick.