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I don't have access to the paper, but it seems to make zero testable predictions and is therefore just mathematical fiction. If it's not falsifiable, it's not science.

EDIT: the last sentence is "Given sufficient redshift (or, equivalently, time) resolution effected by the redshift slicing, one might just find that the Hubble diagram exhibits jumps in the redshift distance relation, which would be very revealing." So they say it's testable. However, we see the effects of "dark matter" (or whatever it really is) today affecting the spin of galaxies, so I don't see how that's compatible with the explanation of these events being "rare".

He wants to look for discontinuities in the Hubble relation. Quoting from the article:

> Looking to the future of his research, Lieu says the next step to validating his model of the cosmos could come through observations using earthbound instruments rather than something like the James Webb Space Telescope.

>"The best way to look for the proposed effect is actually to use a large ground-based telescope—like the Keck Observatory [Waimea, Hawaii], or the Isaac Newton Group of Telescopes in La Palma, Spain—to perform deep field observations, the data of which would be 'sliced' according to redshift," the researcher notes.

>"Given sufficient redshift (or, equivalently, time) resolution effected by the redshift slicing, one might just find that the Hubble diagram exhibits jumps in the redshift distance relation, which would be very revealing."

Not sure how feasible this is though.

All these papers miss the fact that our main evidence for dark matter (or something like it) is the cosmic microwave background. I see no mention on how this very convoluted model can reproduce it.

The evidence is in the oscillations of the primordial plasma seen directly in the CMB. These come from the gravity pulling the plasma and pressure pushing back. Without DM they would be too shallow, DM helps by pulling the plasma gravitationally without opposing the fall with pressure of its own.

“ All these papers miss the fact that our main evidence for dark matter (or something like it) is the cosmic microwave background. ”

There is also the galactic rotation curve evidence. With Newtonian physics, the visible mass in galaxies should rotate faster toward the center and slower toward the edge. This is the rotation curve. We actually observe a very linear curve, where the outer stars and gases rotate at the same speed or even faster than the centers. A dark matter halo would provide the additional gravitational mass for cohesion.

"A dark matter halo"

Could this mass or gravitational impact be outside the expanding bubble of spacetime? If we are in a hole inside a block of swiss cheese, is there a way to determine if we are seeing the effects of the surrounding "cheese"?

Imagine our expanding universe to be inside a black hole. Could the "dark matter halo" be energy/matter dumped into our universe from an external source? Is the expansion of the universe actually our universe growing due to consuming its surroundings?

>All these papers miss the fact that our main evidence for dark matter (or something like it) is the cosmic microwave background. I see no mention on how this very convoluted model can reproduce it.

I am not an astronomer, but IIUC (and I may not), the first evidence for dark matter was posited by Fritz Zwicky[0] in 1933 based on the rotational velocities of galaxies, work by Vera Rubin[1] confirmed Zwicky's hypothesis in more detail decades later.

Since then Rubin's work has repeatedly been confirmed.

And while Penzius and Wilson "discovered" the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) a few years before Rubin published her data, (again, IIUC) the CMB was not used as a reliable tool to look for dark matter until better quality data was gathered in the 1980s and 1990s.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fritz_Zwicky#Dark_matter

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vera_Rubin#Rotational_curves

Edit: Clarified prose.

They didn't say it was always the main evidence, just that it now is. I'm not personally sure about that either, but it's definitely one of the major lines of evidence.
I’ve never really understood how just adding extra invisible stuff to make the equations work is justified either? It seems more likely there is simply something wrong with the equations.
The neutrino was also a particle that nobody could observe at the time when Pauli proposed it. It was just a manifestation of the energy and spin conservation.

The Higgs is the same. It is not needed, but it solves the mass problem of the weak force. It is the only scalar field so far that we have observed and it was not clear whether it would exist at all.

Quintessence and sterile neutrinos are also just pieces that make the equations of the world look prettier, but they are also candidates for dark energy and dark matter.

Pauli wrote in his famous letter:

"I agree that my remedy could seem incredible because one should have seen those neutrons very earlier if they really exist. But only the one who dare can win and the difficult situation, due to the continuous structure of the beta spectrum, is lighted by a remark of my honoured predecessor, Mr Debye, who told me recently in Bruxelles: “Oh, It’s well better not to think to this at all, like new taxes”. From now on, every solution to the issue must be discussed. Thus, dear radioactive people, look and judge."

https://icecube.wisc.edu/neutrino-history/1931/01/1931-pauli...

"Measure first, discover later" can be a perfectly valid application of the scientific method. It's all about refining the resolution on reality.

The problem with dark matter/energy is that we're not guaranteed to discover anything. It might just be wrong. The neutrinos and Higgs just happened to match their initial theory, so that's a survivorship bias. We can't just assume the same will play out for dark matter. It might just be pure mathematical fiction, reflecting our ignorance and/or limitations to measurement rather than something "real" that we can zoom in on.

Well, the point is actually pretty simple. You start with an equation that works for some galaxies. Then you find a galaxy where it doesn't work - you adjust the equation and now it works again. But then you find a new galaxy where it still doesn't work, you adjust again. You try this for 5, 10, 20 galaxies, just adjust the equation - but at some point there is a limit where the equation doesn't bare any more adjustment, and you still have hundreds of other galaxies that don't work.

So, the alternative that starts being simpler is a single simple equation that works for all galaxies, but allow each galaxy to have varying amounts of stuff in it with mass, but that doesn't interact electromagnetically. Right now, this is the simplest solution we have that fits all observations well.

Is it the right answer? We won't be sure unless we can detect particles that fit the necessary characteristics, and a theory that explains the distribution of these particles in different kinds of galaxies. Unfortunately, the models we have allow these particles to be arbitrarily hard to detect, at the level that we can't really rule them out even if we had a particle accelerator the size of the Earth that didn't find them.

Now, in principle a different equation could exist that has the same solutions as the current equations where they work, and different solutions where they don't work, without adding O(number of galaxies) extra parameters. But just like the dark matter particles, unless we stumble upon it, we can't know if it exists or not.

It bears mentioning that the situation is even more constraining than this, because you're not just looking at galactic dynamics - you're looking at galaxy _cluster_ dynamics, and gravitational lensing measurements, and the CMB, and large-scale structure formation, and whatever else.

Dark matter is not Fermi's elephant, as invoked elsewhere in the thread. It's more like the story of the blind men and the elephant - except that the blind men recognise that their individual observations, taken together, admit a coherent explanation.

> Right now, this is the simplest solution we have that fits all observations well.

It doesn't though. For instance, the latest in a litany of such failures is that rotation curves are flat past a million light years [1]. There is no plausible DM distribution that could reproduce such rotation curves while being consistent with other observations.

[1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.09685

It doesn't, and the problems have only become more problematic over time, but it's the least bad hypothesis that's broadly accepted. I suspect a generational succession is required for new paradigms to be contemplated.

There are many researchers proposing simpler, novel, and testable solutions that seem to go unnoticed. For example, I'm a fan of Alexandre Deur's work. He has some simple and elegant solutions that I've never seen discussed even though they appear "obvious". For example, from 21 years ago: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.05905

That paper is suggesting that one of the reasons why galaxies are spinning faster than some calculations expect is because they're failing to account for the gravitational lensing of gravity itself, which bends gravity down towards the disk.

This is basically the first and most common objection laypeople have. (In fact, this comes up in every single thread on HN about DM, not exaggerating.) Believe it or not, scientists have thought of that as well. They tried, and nothing fits the data as well as the standard model.

The trope is so common that there even is an xkcd for it:

https://www.xkcd.com/1758/

> never really understood how just adding extra invisible stuff to make the equations work is justified

IANAP but here’s my understanding.

At the end of the month you spent $2000, you’re not sure how so you track down your expenses:

  - rent $500
  - groceries $120
  - gas $80
  - …
  - unknown: $123
That ‘unknown’ is dark matter. It’s a placeholder. It’s there and makes your total but you can’t explain it yet.
Or maybe there's nothing wrong with the equations, they're just the wrong equations. Or based on a fundamentally wrong assumption.
I would argue that it is falsifiable. What I think you are looking for is verifiable and repeatable. It took almost 30 years to verify Einstien. He said about the collection of a hundred papers trying to prove he is wrong, "you only need one paper to prove it wrong."

It's a therotical paper. Leave it to the expermentaliats to design a test to prove it right. Diffraction gratings prove QED. Right. Feynman's biographer said that.

Paper here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.08733

TL;DR - replace one big singularity with multiple singularities.

As in last sentence there is "The only difference between this work and the standard model is that the temporal singularity occurred only once in the latter, but more than once in the former."

tldr

> I don't have access to the paper

https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.08733

> it seems to make zero testable predictions and is therefore just mathematical fiction

I'll have a look when I get the time, but the reference to his previous paper really doesn't bode well.

Not sure why you’re being downvoted.

If a theory doesn’t generate at least one falsifiable prediction it’s not a scientific theory.

welcome to modern physics, enjoy your stay.
> The origin of these temporal singularities is unknown—safe to say that the same is true of the moment of the Big Bang itself

If you still want to assume that weird things you mathematically need happen whenever you need them for no reason then why not stick with cosmic inflation?

phys.org used to be less of a gosh wow outlet.
phys.org as a domain feels reliable, I guess that's how they make money doing "non-profit" (by having negative effects on humanity) stuff.
The amount of ads I see there in Chrome is stunning.
Really? Since I first noticed links to pyhs.org on HN, I have always wondered why it is not permanently banned as a link target.
Here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.08733

Only managed a first read, but it seems there's no explanation for the CMB.

Let alone any explanation for the CMB power spectrum peaks...

...therefore I won't bother further ;)

Help me understand how can something so hard to detect exist in such vast quantity to change the rotation of galaxies.
People and scientific instruments are made of "normal" (non-Dark) matter, which makes it easy to detect other "normal" matter (electrons, protons, quarks, photons, neutrinos, what-have-you). It's hard for us and our instruments to detect or even be aware of Dark matter at laboratory scales, which operate over the electromagnetic and nuclear forces which Dark Matter feels little or not at all.

At astronomical scales, however, things are different. At those scales, gravity wins out, and is one of the dominant things we observe in astronomy. Dark Matter may not feel the electromagnetic and nuclear forces the way normal matter does, but it feels gravity the same as every other particle does. Nobody gets a pass from gravity, not even Dark Matter.

Consequently, it's relatively easy to observe the gravitational effects of Dark Matter at the astronomical scales of the rotation of galaxies and the dynamics of galaxy clusters, even while it's difficult or impossible to observe the non-gravitational effects of Dark Matter at laboratory scales.

Basically all our observations are from detecting photons. If something in the universe is not emitting photons, we are in troubles
Why do you think that how hard it is to detect should have anything to do with how much of it there is?
> Why do you think that how hard it is to detect should have anything to do with how much of it there is?

Basic statistics. If you have lots of stuff, the probability of detection should be higher, all else being equal.

This tells you that the chance of detecting dark matter is higher than it would be if it were only, say, 0.1% of the energy content of the Universe. Which is true, but so what?

Maybe you mean that this is a sense in which how hard it is to detect has something to do with how much of it there is, which is fine, but the original question is suggesting some much more constraining relationship, where the fact that dark matter is hard to detect and the fact that there is a lot of it poses some kind of apparent contradiction, or at least a puzzle. I don't know of a reason to think that any such contradiction exists.

There seems to me to be a real cottage industry in proposing alternatives to Dark Matter and Dark Energy. I wonder why that might be. Why isn't there as much interest in alternatives to, say, Plate Tectonics or the Germ Theory?
Because those are coherent theories, that don’t have massive gaps in them like dark matter.
What massive gaps?
There are- things like flat or hollow earth, antivax and HIV deniers, homeopaths etc.

Proponents of all of the above are looking for a grand unifying cosmology. Dark matter and dark energy are confusing and unknown, so people want to just simplify them away. Flat earthers want to simplify away the existence of other planets. Antivaxers want to simplify away medicine.

Because it's complicated astrophysics and largely unknown it is normal to put dark matter and energy theories into a non-fantastical category. The very large majority of physicists think MOND and similar are defunct theories. Dark matter and energy are very different, separate phenomena that just share a name. It does not make sense for them to have a shared explanation. There are also so, so many ways we observe dark matter that make it clear there is matter involved. Every new observation has completely overturned the predictions of every MOND or modified gravity theory, and they just come back with a totally different explanation to fit the new data.

> Proponents of all of the above are looking for a grand unifying cosmology. Dark matter and dark energy are confusing and unknown, so people want to just simplify them away. Flat earthers want to simplify away the existence of other planets. Antivaxers want to simplify away medicine.

Ironically, you are positing a grand unifying theory here by stating that detractors from mainstream opinions just want simpler answers. But isn't it simpler to just go with the mainstream opinion and go with the flow? Alternative models of the earth are typically rooted in Biblical or ancient belief systems. Any specific argument based on physics come long after a person's acceptance of, e.g., the Bible. And I can't even imagine how you might think anti-vax beliefs are simpler so I can't speak to that. Homeopathy sounds pretty dumb to me, sure, but also there are tons of reasons to distrust the medical system in the USA, I'd be surprised if anyone seriously argued against that. I can understand why people suspicious of America's medical culture of prescribing 10 medications to someone instead of lifestyle changes might see a bottle of sugar pills at the store labeled with "natural remedy" and think it could be a better alternative.

> Every new observation has completely overturned the predictions of every MOND or modified gravity theory, and they just come back with a totally different explanation to fit the new data.

That's how science works. Scientists are not prophets, they do not have the luxury of starting with all the answers. It's really disheartening to see you make these theories into an "us vs them" ego contest.

I'm guess I'm just a dyed-in-the-wool agnostic, but when I hear someone suggest an alternative theory I don't immediately feel the need to group them with everything I think is wrong with the world. Instead I think, "That's really cool they came up with a different model of the universe. I wonder how they account for everything we observe and how it will be refined over time and whether it will predict new discoveries." Even if your current theory never gets overturned, I think your attitude is a perfect example of why science is said to advance one funeral at a time. Just because they got it wrong in the past doesn't mean they can never get it right, and it doesn't mean there's a 100% certainty that you got it right.

"There are- things like flat or hollow earth, antivax and HIV deniers, homeopaths etc."

That's a fair point. It's just my perception that those things don't tend to be taken very seriously by people commenting on HN.

If you ask me, Inflation is far more problematic than the Dark Stuff. Nevertheless, so far it remains the best explanation we have for observed phenomena ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Definitely more problematic. And Webb only made it more confusing :(

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmological_constant_problem

> Depending on the Planck energy cutoff and other factors, the quantum vacuum energy contribution to the effective cosmological constant is calculated to be between 50 and as many as 120 orders of magnitude greater than has actually been observed, a state of affairs described by physicists as "the largest discrepancy between theory and experiment in all of science" and "the worst theoretical prediction in the history of physics".

"problematic" is a matter of degree, and is relative. Inflation is less problematic than some theories (e.g. "magic"). Are there any alternative theories that are less problematic than inflation, and yet also solve the same problems that inflation solves?
What does inflation explain though? It was proposed as an explanation for CMB spectrum. Anything else?
Rapid expansion of the early Universe. We need to have Inflation in order for the Big Bang to work as a theory.

Without it, the Big Bang theory runs into major problems:

1. The Horizon Problem: The cosmic microwave background (CMB) has nearly identical temperature in all directions, suggesting the entire observable universe was once in contact. But without inflation, opposite sides of our universe would never have been able to “communicate” and reach this equilibrium.

2. The Flatness Problem: Our universe is remarkably “flat” (parallel lines stay parallel), which would require impossibly precise initial conditions without inflation.

3. The Origin of Structure: Inflation explains how quantum fluctuations during this expansion became the seeds for galaxies and cosmic structures we see today.

It's obviously tied pretty closely to any theory of large scale structure formation too