"Black Swan Lessons on the Japanese Disaster .."

"We don't understand the world as well as we think we do and tend to be fooled by false patterns. We mistake luck for skills (the fooled by randomness effect), overestimate knowledge about rare events (Black Swans), as well as human understanding, something that has been getting worse with the increase in complexity." Nassim Taleb

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505125_162-40143642/black-swan-l...