If you had previously developed these skills through widish reading and patient consideration, then tools like LLMs are like somebody handing you the keys to a wave-runner in a choppy sea of information.
But for those now having to learn to critically think, I cannot see how they would endure through the struggle of contemplation without habitually reaching for an LLM. The act of holding ambiguity within yourself, where information is often encoded into knowledge, becomes instantly relieve here.
While I feel lucky to have acquired critically skills prior to 2023, tools like LLMs being unconditionally handed to young people for learning fill me with a kind of dread.
I anticipate smart people will not suffer some handicap simply because easy answers are now readily available for the vast bulk of people who were never going to think critically in the first place.
Example: when I use it for prose for fiction or my personal blog, I can feel my own imagination for constructing good sentences and my own vocabulary deteriorate much faster than I would've expected. But when I used it purely for brainstorming plot points _or_ doing a quick proofreading pass on a set of notes I already took myself that I want to post, I feel no sudden negative effects.
Feeling that sudden difference in competency is jarring - in a good way. It's very useful information. I wonder whether people growing up with these tools from the beginning won't get that benefit - they won't have a "before AI" and "after AI" brain to "jar" them into awareness and adjustment. Then again... maybe the skills I am trying to preserve will be seen as entirely irrelevant to them regardless.
There is this overly optimistic view that average person is intelligent, which is definitely not the case. AI doesn't make people stupid, it just exposes the existing stupidity.
Idiocracy is accelerating*
Through unlimited amusement, entertainment, and connection we are creating a sad, boring, lonely world.
This homogenization was first pushed trough education and such but it remained among the more rural folk (in as far as rural exists in such a densely populated region) but now media and migration are rapidly killing it off.
Technology for touching grass.
That’s the real threat: reality authoring.
AI behavior on the other hand can cause under-informed users to do crazy things that no one would ever want. The form of the harm is less predictable, the magnitude isn't limited by anything except the user's ability and skepticism.
Imagine whatever US president you think is least competent talking to ChatGPT. If their conversation ventures into discussion of a Big Red Switch That Ends The World, it's going to eventually advise on all the reasons the button should be pushed, because that's exactly what would happen in the mountains of narrative material the LLM has been trained on.
Hopefully there is no end the world button and even the worst US president isn't going to push it because ChatGPT said it was a good idea. ... But you get the idea, and there absolutely are people leaving their families and doing all manner of crazy stuff because they accidentally prompted the AI into writing fiction starting them and the AI is advising them to live the life of a fictional character.
I think AI doomers have it all wrong, AI risk to the extent it exists isn't from any kind of super-intelligence, it's significantly from super-insanity. The AI doesn't need any kind of super-human persuasion, turns out vastly _sub_-human persuasion is more than enough for many.
Wealthy people abusing a new communications channel to influence the public isn't a new risk, it's a risk as old as time. It's not irrelevant, by any means, but we do have a long history of dealing with it.
(I realize this might be a weak point for many people.)
It's strong for members of a community to think alike. On the other hand, some people like to search in todash meme space for a useful idea or strategy in the rough. Problem is this treasure hunter strategy is only available to those with resources to try lots of untested and potentially quite harmful ideas.
Uh oh...
More seriously, if you have non-techie (or less techie) friends or family using ChatGPT please ask to see their conversations.
You're likely to be shocked by at a least few of them... many people really don't understand what these tools are and are using them in crazy and damaging ways.
For example, one friends brother in law has his ChatGPT telling him about varrious penny stocks and obscure cryptocurrencies and promising him 10000x returns, which he absolutely believes and is making investments based on.
Other people are allowing ChatGPT to convince them that God has chosen to speak to them through ChatGPT and is commanding them to do all sorts of nonsense.
The commercial LLMs work well enough that people who don't know how they work are frequently bamboozled.
Consider how much your own skepticism of the output comes from cases where it was confidently but objectively wrong and what happens to someone who never uses it on something where objective correctness can be easily judged.
Are we still treating low n-size fMRI studies as anything more than a clout-seeking exercise in confirmation bias?
But he got it wrong-- for most it doesn't need to be better than what they'd do themselves, it doesn't even need to be particularly good.
Plenty of people would prefer to put out AI copy even when they suspect it's worse than what they'd write themselves because they take less personal injury when it turns out to be flawed.
Even for supposed critical thinkers, on average we’re not all that original.
I think its on the person to realize whether A.I. is becoming a crutch.
AI chat bots enable passive consumption. Passive consumption homogenizes thought. It's not the only technology to do this.
I suspect that The New Yorker, and similar outlets, will stop caring when it becomes financially and socially advantageous to do so.
A culture that is ambivalent or disinterested in providing practical solutions to this problem is the greater issue.
We should wait for the peer reviews before digging too much into it though. These are, after all, preliminary results.
Can "AI" fail. If yes, then what is next for Silicon Valley.