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by evolve2k·11mo ago·view on hn ↗
TLDR; Big Tech companies have become worth trillions based on their AI positions. NVIDIA is saying that its new chips almost make their old chips redundant, raising the awkward question “how long should we budget that these chips (that these players each have stacks and stacks of), will last.

Budget the chips wil be redundant in 3 years ? 2 years, 1 year?

If 1-2 years everyone books are cooked and a massive write off is coming at some point (is what’s the article is implying per its back of envelope calcs)

So folks what’s your call? How many years is the real useful life of the NVIDIA chips they’ve all currently bought and filled their server farms with?

State years or months and why you think that timeframe :)

2 comments
Lots of variables, here. How long does the current AI boom continue? If it's a bust in two years, expect a much longer service life for those GPUs. If it's still going, the question's more interesting. Is it more expensive to build a new datacenter or replace the old GPUs? What about the cost of operating them? How much better are new GPUs?
3 years - knowing nothing I think the chips will likely have a three year useful life. Maybe my intuition is it’s like buying graphics cards for a computer. It’s fast for a couple years.
It'll probably take at least 3 years of near 100% utilization just to break even for whomevers buying.
Should be closer to crypto mining no?